Improving water and food security in South America through the prediction of the timing of the rainy season

• Grant number: 18/08287-0
• Support Opportunities: Regular Research Grants
• Start date: September 01, 2018
• End date: August 31, 2020
• Field of knowledge: Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Geosciences - Meteorology
• Agreement: Texas A&M University
• Mobility Program: SPRINT - Projetos de pesquisa - Mobilidade
• Principal Investigator: Jose Antonio Marengo Orsini
• Grantee: Jose Antonio Marengo Orsini
• Principal researcher abroad: Rodrigo José Bombardi
• Institution abroad: Texas A&M University, United States
• Host Institution: Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Nacionais (CEMADEN). Cachoeira Paulista , SP, Brazil
• Associated research grant: 14/50848-9 - INCT 2014: INCT for Climate Change, AP.PFPMCG.TEM

Abstract

Predicting the beginning and end dates of the rainy season is an essential, but challenging, aspect of water management in tropical regions. However, predictions of the timing of the rainy season are not yet formally integrated into water management planning. One of the main goals of the ongoing FAPESP project is to evaluate Brazil's vulnerability to climate change in the context of water and food security (INCT for Climate Change Phase 2). In addition, the ongoing research at Texas A&M University focuses on investigating the variability and predictability of precipitation regimes over tropical regions. Therefore, in this project, we propose to investigate ways of improving the forecast of the timing of the rainy season over tropical South America while contributing to the FAPESP research project. This project will be a collaboration between the National Institute for Space Research (INPE - Brazil), the Center for Natural Disaster Monitoring and Alert (CEMADEN - Brazil), and the Department of Geography at Texas A&M University (TAMU - United States). The initial exchange activities will consist of organizing a two-week-long workshop at INPE, led by the TAMU principal investigator (Dr. Bombardi), and a week-long course at TAMU, led by the FAPESP principal investigator (Dr. Marengo). The long-term goals are (1) to assess South America's vulnerability to climate variability and change and (2) to effectively communicate climate predictions and projections to decision makers in South America. (AU)