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Improving water and food security in South America through the prediction of the timing of the rainy season

Grant number: 18/08287-0
Support type:Regular Research Grants
Duration: September 01, 2018 - August 31, 2019
Field of knowledge:Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Geosciences
Cooperation agreement: Texas A&M University
Mobility Program: SPRINT - Projetos de pesquisa - Mobilidade
Principal Investigator:Jose Antonio Marengo Orsini
Grantee:Jose Antonio Marengo Orsini
Principal investigator abroad: Rodrigo José Bombardi
Institution abroad: Texas A&M University, United States
Home Institution: Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Nacionais (CEMADEN). Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia, Inovações e Comunicações (Brasil). Cachoeira Paulista , SP, Brazil
Partner institutions: Texas A&M University
Associated research grant:14/50848-9 - INCT 2014: INCT for Climate Change, AP.PFPMCG.TEM

Abstract

Predicting the beginning and end dates of the rainy season is an essential, but challenging, aspect of water management in tropical regions. However, predictions of the timing of the rainy season are not yet formally integrated into water management planning. One of the main goals of the ongoing FAPESP project is to evaluate Brazil's vulnerability to climate change in the context of water and food security (INCT for Climate Change Phase 2). In addition, the ongoing research at Texas A&M University focuses on investigating the variability and predictability of precipitation regimes over tropical regions. Therefore, in this project, we propose to investigate ways of improving the forecast of the timing of the rainy season over tropical South America while contributing to the FAPESP research project. This project will be a collaboration between the National Institute for Space Research (INPE - Brazil), the Center for Natural Disaster Monitoring and Alert (CEMADEN - Brazil), and the Department of Geography at Texas A&M University (TAMU - United States). The initial exchange activities will consist of organizing a two-week-long workshop at INPE, led by the TAMU principal investigator (Dr. Bombardi), and a week-long course at TAMU, led by the FAPESP principal investigator (Dr. Marengo). The long-term goals are (1) to assess South America's vulnerability to climate variability and change and (2) to effectively communicate climate predictions and projections to decision makers in South America. (AU)