Prediction and inference in complex systems

• Grant number: 19/23293-0
• Support Opportunities: Regular Research Grants
• Start date: September 01, 2020
• End date: August 31, 2022
• Field of knowledge: Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Physics - General Physics
• Principal Investigator: Francisco Aparecido Rodrigues
• Grantee: Francisco Aparecido Rodrigues
• Host Institution: Instituto de Ciências Matemáticas e de Computação (ICMC). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Carlos , SP, Brazil
• City of the host institution: São Carlos

Abstract

Complex systems are made of discrete parts that interact in a non-linear way. The Internet, social networks and ecosystems are examples of complex systems. A big challenge in this area is the prediction of the dynamical processes, such as epidemic spreading and synchronization of coupled oscillators, from the network structure. In the present project, we aim to perform the prediction and inference of dynamical processes in networks. We will consider methods of Bayesian inference to determine which network properties most influence dynamical processes simulated on the network structure. Machine learning approaches will be adopted to perform the prediction of dynamical processes, including epidemic spreading and synchronization. Applications, such as medicine, epidemiology and link prediction, will also be studied in this project. The goals proposed here will open a new field that considers machine learning and statistics to model and predict complex systems. (AU)

Scientific publications

(21)

(The scientific publications listed on this page originate from the Web of Science or SciELO databases. Their authors have cited FAPESP grant or fellowship project numbers awarded to Principal Investigators or Fellowship Recipients, whether or not they are among the authors. This information is collected automatically and retrieved directly from those bibliometric databases.)

ALEXANDRE, MICHEL; SILVA, THIAGO CHRISTIANO; CONNAUGHTON, COLM; RODRIGUES, FRANCISCO A.. The drivers of systemic risk in financial networks: a data-driven machine learning analysis. CHAOS SOLITONS & FRACTALS, v. 153, n. 1, DEC 2021. (19/23293-0)

ALVES, CAROLINE L.; TOUTAIN, THAISE G. L. DE O.; AGUIAR, PATRICIA DE CARVALHO; PINEDA, ARUANE M.; ROSTER, KIRSTIN; THIELEMANN, CHRISTIANE; PORTO, JOEL AUGUSTO MOURA; RODRIGUES, FRANCISCO A.. Diagnosis of autism spectrum disorder based on functional brain networks and machine learning. SCIENTIFIC REPORTS, v. 13, n. 1, p. 20-pg., 2023-05-18. (19/26595-7, 19/23293-0, 19/22277-0)

ALVES, CAROLINE L.; CURY, RUBENS GISBERT; ROSTER, KIRSTIN; PINEDA, ARUANE M.; RODRIGUES, FRANCISCO A.; THIELEMANN, CHRISTIANE; CIBA, MANUEL. Application of machine learning and complex network measures to an EEG dataset from ayahuasca experiments. PLoS One, v. 17, n. 12, p. 26-pg., 2022-12-16. (19/22277-0, 19/23293-0, 19/26595-7)

ALEXANDRE, M.; XAVIER, F.; SILVA, T.; RODRIGUES, F.. The determinants of the individual nestedness contribution in financial systems. EPL, v. 141, n. 4, p. 8-pg., 2023-02-01. (19/23293-0)

VENTURA, PAULO C.; TOKUDA, ERIC K.; COSTA, LUCIANO DA F.; RODRIGUES, FRANCISCO A.. A Markov chain for metapopulations of small sizes with attraction landscape. CHAOS SOLITONS & FRACTALS, v. 167, p. 8-pg., 2023-01-07. (19/01077-3, 19/23293-0, 15/22308-2, 16/24555-0)

SILVA, JOSE CARLOS M.; SILVA, DIOGO H.; RODRIGUES, FRANCISCO A.; FERREIRA, SILVIO C.. Comparison of theoretical approaches for epidemic processes with waning immunity in complex networks. PHYSICAL REVIEW E, v. 106, n. 3, p. 9-pg., 2022-09-22. (21/00369-0, 13/07375-0, 19/23293-0)

SILVA, DIOGO H.; RODRIGUES, FRANCISCO A.; FERREIRA, SILVIO C.. Accuracy of discrete- and continuous-time mean-field theories for epidemic processes on complex networks. PHYSICAL REVIEW E, v. 110, n. 1, p. 9-pg., 2024-07-17. (21/00369-0, 19/23293-0, 13/07375-0)

ROSTER, KIRSTIN OLIVEIRA; MARTINELLI, TIAGO; CONNAUGHTON, COLM; SANTILLANA, MAURICIO; RODRIGUES, FRANCISCO A.. Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on dengue in Brazil: Interrupted time series analysis of changes in surveillance and transmission. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, v. 18, n. 12, p. 14-pg., 2024-12-01. (19/23293-0, 19/26595-7)

VENTURA, PAULO CESAR; ALETA, ALBERTO; RODRIGUES, FRANCISCO APARECIDO; MORENO, YAMIR. Modeling the effects of social distancing on the large-scale spreading of diseases. EPIDEMICS, v. 38, p. 13-pg., 2022-02-28. (19/11183-5, 19/23293-0, 16/24555-0)

ALEXANDRE, MICHEL; DE MORAES, KAUE L.; RODRIGUES, FRANCISCO A.. isk-dependent centrality in the Brazilian stock marke. JOURNAL OF COMPLEX NETWORKS, v. 10, n. 1, DEC 20 2021. (19/23293-0)

DE ARRUDA, GUILHERME FERRAZ; JEUB, LUCAS G. S.; MATA, ANGELICA S.; RODRIGUES, FRANCISCO A.; MORENO, YAMIR. From subcritical behavior to a correlation-induced transition in rumor models. NATURE COMMUNICATIONS, v. 13, n. 1, p. 10-pg., 2022-06-01. (19/23293-0, 13/07375-0)

VENTURA, PAULO CESAR; ALETA, ALBERTO; RODRIGUES, FRANCISCO A.; MORENO, YAMIR. Epidemic spreading in populations of mobile agents with adaptive behavioral response. CHAOS SOLITONS & FRACTALS, v. 156, p. 10-pg., 2022-03-01. (19/11183-5, 16/24555-0, 19/23293-0, 13/07375-0)

ALVES, CAROLINE L.; PINEDA, ARUANE M.; ROSTER, KIRSTIN; THIELEMANN, CHRISTIANE; RODRIGUES, FRANCISCO A.. EEG functional connectivity and deep learning for automatic diagnosis of brain disorders: Alzheimer's disease and schizophrenia. JOURNAL OF PHYSICS-COMPLEXITY, v. 3, n. 2, p. 13-pg., 2022-06-01. (19/23293-0, 19/26595-7, 19/22277-0)

SILVA, JOSE CARLOS M.; SILVA, DIOGO H.; RODRIGUES, FRANCISCO A.; FERREIRA, SILVIO C.. Consequences of non-Markovian healing processes on epidemic models with recurrent infections on networks. NEW JOURNAL OF PHYSICS, v. 27, n. 1, p. 15-pg., 2025-01-01. (19/23293-0, 21/00369-0, 13/07375-0)

INTERIAN, RUBEN; RODRIGUES, FRANCISCO A.. Group polarization, influence, and domination in online interaction networks: a case study of the 2022 Brazilian elections. JOURNAL OF PHYSICS-COMPLEXITY, v. 4, n. 3, p. 13-pg., 2023-09-01. (21/12456-5, 19/23293-0, 13/07375-0)

PINEDA, ARUANE M.; KENT, PAUL; CONNAUGHTON, COLM; RODRIGUES, FRANCISCO A.. Machine learning-based prediction of Q-voter model in complex networks. JOURNAL OF STATISTICAL MECHANICS-THEORY AND EXPERIMENT, v. 2023, n. 12, p. 32-pg., 2023-12-01. (19/23293-0, 21/13843-2, 13/07375-0)

ALVES, LUIZ G. A.; MANGIONI, GIUSEPPE; RODRIGUES, FRANCISCO A.; PANZARASA, PIETRO; MORENO, YAMIR. The rise and fall of countries in the global value chains. SCIENTIFIC REPORTS, v. 12, n. 1, p. 14-pg., 2022-05-31. (19/23293-0)

ALEXANDRE, MICHEL; XAVIER, FELIPE JORDAO; SILVA, THIAGO CHRISTIANO; RODRIGUES, FRANCISCO A.. Nestedness and systemic risk in financial networks. LATIN AMERICAN JOURNAL OF CENTRAL BANKING, v. 6, n. 2, p. 8-pg., 2025-06-01. (19/23293-0)

MARTINEZ-MARTINEZ, C. T.; MENDEZ-BERMUDEZ, J. A.; RODRIGUES, FRANCISCO A.; ESTRADA, ERNESTO. Nonuniform random graphs on the plane: A scaling study. PHYSICAL REVIEW E, v. 105, n. 3, p. 13-pg., 2022-03-15. (19/23293-0)

LOTFI, NASTARAN; RODRIGUES, FRANCISCO A.. On the effect of memory on the Prisoner?s Dilemma game in correlated networks. PHYSICA A-STATISTICAL MECHANICS AND ITS APPLICATIONS, v. 607, p. 7-pg., 2022-12-01. (19/23293-0, 13/07375-0, 20/08359-1)

VENTURA, PAULO CESAR; MORENO, YAMIR; RODRIGUES, FRANCISCO A.. Role of time scale in the spreading of asymmetrically interacting diseases. PHYSICAL REVIEW RESEARCH, v. 3, n. 1, FEB 12 2021. (16/24555-0, 13/07375-0, 19/11183-5, 19/23293-0)