Storm surge and coastal inundation warning system for the state of São Paulo littoral, focusing on climate change impacts

• Grant number: 18/14601-0
• Support Opportunities: Research Grants - Research in Public Policies
• Duration: December 01, 2020 - November 30, 2023
• Field of knowledge: Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Geosciences
• Principal Investigator: Celia Regina de Gouveia Souza
• Grantee: Celia Regina de Gouveia Souza
• Host Institution: Instituto de Pesquisas Ambientais (IPA). Secretaria do Meio Ambiente (São Paulo - Estado). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Associated researchers: Alexandra Franciscatto Penteado Sampaio ; Chou Sin Chan ; Joséph Harari ; Renan Braga Ribeiro
• Associated research grant: 17/50336-6 - Modernization and expansion of the scientific research infrastructure of the Geological Institute to subsidize public policies in the environment area (PDIp), AP.PDIP
• Associated scholarship(s): 21/05805-3 - Hydrodynamic and sea level modeling for the State of São Paulo, BP.TT; 21/05876-8 - Numerical operational modeling of maritime agitation for the coast of São Paulo., BP.TT; 21/03381-1 - Development of platform for the Warning System of Coastal Hangovers and Floods, BP.TT; 21/01697-1 - Development of high resolution set weather forecasting tools to the São Paulo coast, BP.TT

Abstract

In November/2016, the Civil Defense State Coordination of São Paulo - CDSC, in collaboration with Geological Institute and other institutions, has published the "Preventive Plan of Civil Defense for Coastal Erosion, Inundations and Floods/Fords caused by Extreme Meteorological-Oceanographic Events, such as Storm Surges and Storm Tides". By this time, because of the inexistence of studies focused on this subject, one of the major challenges was to establish some criteria and key-indices in order to qualify the three warning levels - observation, attention and alert. The main objective of this project is to develop a prototype of an online automated Warning System for Storm Surges and Coastal Inundations applied to the São Paulo coastline, based on a method of operationalization and integration of numerical models (meteorological, hydrodynamic/sea level, and sea disturbance/waves) with focus in extreme events forecasts, and operating within a free software platform. Besides, a databank on extreme events considering their boundary conditions for the entire littoral, similar to that developed for the Baixada Santista region (1928-2016), will be constructed too. Meteorological and oceanographic indices will be established through the statistical analyses of long-term series and current monitoring of extreme events. The Warning System will be accoupled to the Coastal Erosion Risk Map, so that beaches will be the spatial units for decision-making. Having the CDSC as a partner, it is expected that the prototype can be replicated and embed into the Municipal Contingency plans, which elaboration will be support by this project. (AU)