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Global changes and sustainable development with water-energy viability and economic solvency

Grant number: 22/07521-5
Support Opportunities:Regular Research Grants
Duration: November 01, 2022 - October 31, 2024
Field of knowledge:Interdisciplinary Subjects
Convênio/Acordo: CONFAP - National Council of State Research Support Foundations
Principal Investigator:Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
Grantee:Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
Host Institution: Escola de Engenharia de São Carlos (EESC). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Carlos , SP, Brazil
Associated researchers:Adelaide Cassia Nardocci ; Danielle de Almeida Bressiani ; Enio Bueno Pereira ; Karina Simone Sass ; Luz Adriana Cuartas Pineda ; Martinus Servatius Krol ; Tercio Ambrizzi

Abstract

Brazil has endured the worst droughts in recorded history over the last decade, resulting in severe socioeconomic and environmental impacts, especially in Northeast and Southeast Brazil. Since 2014/2015, drought patterns and their effects on the country's hydroelectric power plants remain in a critical condition (Cuartas et al, 2022). On the one hand, these changing patterns also unveil new challenges and perspectives of water security (Gesualdo et al, 2021), especially under the recent New Framework of Sanitation, Federal Act 14.026. The 2020/2021 National Drought Declaration has interfered into adaptation mechanisms, either in the new Payment for Ecosystem Services, Federal Act 14.119, and even with new safety operation rules of multipurpose reservoirs (ANASB, 2022). Furthermore, new solutions of adaptive-flexible schemes appear, e.g. hybrid power generation for increasing water and energy securities (Campos et al, 2021), water reuse scenarios (Souza et al, 2022) and water-asset securitization (Guzman et al, 2022). In this way, ecosystem insecurity and social vulnerability depend upon decision makers' choices and engagement, water-use and allocation decisions under global changes, holistic approaches and engagement of underserved populations to achieve equitable water security and ecosystem resilience (Scott et al, 2021). This 24-month project coordinated by UFPE and USP, associated to CEMADEN, INPE, UFPel, APAC, UFPRPE, UFAPE and EMBRAPA, aims to evaluate feasible scenario pathways of global changes and sustainable adaptation for hydro-energy viability and economic solvency around selected areas in NE and SE Brazil. These scenarios will assess the limits and opportunities of renewable energy to attend multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), thereby acknowledging the effective adoption of co-generation of running and future water infrastructure being affected by land-use and land cover change, climate variability and users' demands. The specific objectives of the project are: 1. modelling reference scenarios, disaggregated from AR6 (CMIP6) under combination of SSP's x RCP's, with Soil & Water Assessment Tool + (SWAT+), in NE and SE Brazil river basins linked to strategic freshwater reservoirs (ANA, 2022), 2. merging reference SSP_RCP_SWAT+ scenarios with SDG-multipurpose intervention (management) scenarios using hybrid co-generation schemes in selected reservoirs in NE and SE Brazil, 3. coupling risk transfer mechanisms (insurance models) as warrant tools of economic solvency under climate change for new public-private partnerships (PPPs), addressing renewable and sustainable water-energy-ecosystem nexus to achieve zero-net gaps for future droughts. This project has data extraction, curation and management under Nat. Institute of Sci. & Tech for Climate Change - Phase 2 (Marengo, 2014). (AU)

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