Abstract
In recent decades, outbreaks of arboviruses such as zika, dengue and urban yellow fever have caused a state of international public emergency. The number of dengue cases reported to the World Health Organization has increased from around half a million in 2000 to over 4 million in 2019. In addition to these, other neglected arboviruses may play a relevant role in the coming years due to climate change, increased rates deforestation and disorderly urban growth, increasing human contact with the wild environment. Therefore, the ability to detect and predict these epidemic events is essential to design adequate control strategies. Covid-19 has exposed a serious disconnect between the animal, human and environmental domains in the One Health agenda. An important factor has been the lack of transdisciplinary research programs that bridge these domains. Using a multidisciplinary approach in the One Health concept, we propose here to evaluate the risk environment that contributes to the emergence of arboviruses with epidemic potential in the State of São Paulo. In this five-year project, our two main objectives will be (a) to develop integrative models using environmental information, of cases and viruses/serotypes circulating in the region, modeled for different scenarios of climate change and changes in the profile of land use, and (b) to investigate opportunities for the development of systems early warning to trigger strategic responses to potential outbreaks. With this, it is expected that the risk areas for arboviruses will be identified, optimizing time and resources in addition to allowing them to be prioritized by health services. It is also expected to reduce the risks of epidemic diseases by predicting future scenarios through statistical modeling. (AU)
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