Mathematical and Statistical Modeling of Podisus nigrispinus (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) and Chrysoperla externa (Neuroptera: Chrysopidae) on Agrotis ipsilon (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae): Population Dynamics and Functional and Numerical Responses

• Grant number: 24/16265-8
• Support Opportunities: Regular Research Grants
• Start date: September 01, 2025
• End date: August 31, 2027
• Field of knowledge: Agronomical Sciences - Agronomy - Plant Health
• Principal Investigator: Marcelo Nogueira Rossi
• Grantee: Marcelo Nogueira Rossi
• Host Institution: Instituto de Ciências Ambientais, Químicas e Farmacêuticas (ICAQF). Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP). Campus Diadema. Diadema , SP, Brazil
• City of the host institution: Diadema
• Associated researchers: Rafael de Andrade Moral ; Wesley Augusto Conde Godoy
• Associated scholarship(s): 25/24103-0 - Laboratory Rearing of Agrotis ipsilon, Podisus nigrispinus and Chrysoperla externa for Population Interaction Experiments, BP.IC

Abstract

Agrotis ipsilon is considered one of the most important pests in Brazil, occurring on a wide range of economically important host plants, and exhibiting extensive geographic distribution. For Eucalyptus, it is the most important pest among the caterpillars known as cutworms. This insect attacks Eucalyptus seedlings, consuming the leaves in the early stages and cutting small plants close to the ground in the later larval stages. Predation is a very relevant population interaction process within the context of integrated pest management, where the predator benefits from the interaction, leading to the death of the prey in the vast majority of cases. In this project, the functional and numerical responses of the predators Podisus nigrispinus and Chrysoperla externa will be studied on the pest A. ipsilon, determining the strength of the interaction of these natural enemies, as well as the potential of these insects as biological control agents of A. ipsilon. Functional and numerical response patterns will be investigated experimentally using E. urophylla as the host plant. A mathematical model with a life-stage structure will be developed with the aim of understanding inherent ecological patterns of the system and making medium- and long-term predictions about the population dynamics of A. ipsilon, with C. externa and P. nigrispinus as natural enemies. The connection between experimentation and mathematical modeling will allow combining estimates and theory within more assertive thresholds, since the mathematical modeling will be guided by experimental data. Through the development of this project, it will also be possible to form human resources specialized in biological control and insect ecology, areas that have been growing substantially in Brazil. (AU)