Atlantic Forest Fish and climate change ATLANTICFORESTFISH-BRASIL

• Grant number: 25/01759-8
• Support Opportunities: BIOTA-FAPESP Program - Regular Research Grants
• Start date: November 01, 2025
• End date: October 31, 2028
• Field of knowledge: Biological Sciences - Ecology - Applied Ecology
• Principal Investigator: Gislene Torrente Vilara
• Grantee: Gislene Torrente Vilara
• Host Institution: Instituto do Mar (IMar). Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP). Campus Baixada Santista. Santos , SP, Brazil
• City of the host institution: Santos
• Associated researchers: André Luiz Vizine Pereira ; Angela Maria Zanata ; Carla Natacha Marcolino Polaz ; Fabio Cop Ferreira ; Fernando Ramos Martins ; Flávio César Thadeo de Lima ; Jansen Alfredo Sampaio Zuanon ; Murilo Sversut Dias ; Priscila Camelier de Assis Cardoso ; Rafael Pereira Leitão ; Renata Guimaraes Frederico ; Ursulla Pereira Souza

Abstract

This project aims to build a high-quality database on the diversity of freshwater fish species in coastal streams of the Atlantic Forest. A preliminary database was built and integrates information on the presence and distribution of fish species in streams, as well as sampling gaps for 63 coastal basins. Efforts to evaluate the first database on freshwater fishes in this biome at the proposed scale, as well as to fill information gaps, are essential to assess patterns and processes of distribution, effectiveness of conservation areas, risks associated with land use and occupation, and effects of climate change. Preliminary mapping detected the presence of 484 species from records obtained in 1,168 sampling sites distributed across 63 coastal river basins of the Atlantic Forest (Figure 1). However, the current status of the database does not allow us to consider this set of species as true endemics. One example detected is Acestrorhynchus pantaneiro Menezes, 1992, recorded in our database only in the Jacuí River basin, but with occurrence in the Uruguay River basin (not considered in the database until then), which indicates false endemism (Zaniboni Filho et al., 2004). Records with a similar situation need to be carefully evaluated, in partnership with experts from taxonomic groups or scientists with a long history of work describing species and organizing the ichthyofauna of the biome. After building the database, the data will be coupled to a Geographic Information System (GIS), which will allow the identification of the main factors determining the observed patterns of distribution and endemism of the ichthyofauna at the proposed scale, at the landscape scale. The patterns of richness, endemism and distribution of species will be evaluated in relation to the characteristics of land use and occupation, effects of hydrological disconnection and fragmentation of basins predicted as a result of historical variations in climate (e.g. sea level rise), at different spatial scales. Projections of future climate change considering new climate scenarios derived from the most widely used General Circulation Models (GCMs) will be applied to the database. The results are expected to help define priority areas of work to meet the SDGs of the 2030 Agenda, as well as most of the topics foreseen in item 2 of the Biota Synthesis (a, b, c, d, f, g, h, j, k). (AU)