Assessing the Evolutionary Potential to Environmental Change in Narrowly Endemic Anuran Species

• Grant number: 25/14630-3
• Support Opportunities: Research Grants - Visiting Researcher Grant - International
• Start date: September 07, 2025
• End date: December 06, 2026
• Field of knowledge: Biological Sciences - Ecology - Ecosystems Ecology
• Agreement: Fulbright Commission
• Principal Investigator: Célio Fernando Baptista Haddad
• Grantee: Célio Fernando Baptista Haddad
• Visiting researcher: Kelly Raquel Zamudio
• Visiting researcher institution: The University Of Texas At Austin/Utaustin ,
• Host Institution: Instituto de Biociências (IB). Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP). Campus de Rio Claro. Rio Claro , SP, Brazil
• City of the host institution: Rio Claro

Abstract

Given the escalating impact of synergistic stressors such as climate change and habitat loss on biodiversity, it is crucial to prioritize research efforts in geographic regions predicted to be highly affected such as South America, taxonomic groups such as amphibians that are particularly vulnerable to these stressors, and species of conservation concern. In this project, we focus on four frog species in the genera Rupirana (R. cardosoi) and Bokermannohyla (B. oxente, B. pseudopseudis, and B. sapiranga). These species inhabit shallow temporary ponds and small streams in open environments within the endangered campo rupestre biome in the northern Espinhaço Mountain Range in the Chapada Diamantina region, Brazilian state of Bahia. The campo rupestre represents a sky island system characterized by high endemism of amphibians at the species level. We propose to collect genomic-scale data to perform genotype-environment association analyses, species distribution modeling, and develop a dispersal model to forecast population range shifts in response to future changes in climates and habitats. The outcomes of this project will provide valuable information for extinction risk assessments and for implementing future conservation measures focused on these and other frog species. Our overarching goal is to develop these four species as a model system for predicting potential geographic range shifts in response to future changes in climates and habitats for climatically adapted vertebrates. To achieve these aims, we will focus on the following specific goals:-Identify genetic clusters present across the geographic range of each species using genomic-scale data.-Investigate whether the identified population clusters reflect distinct evolutionary trajectories or are artifacts of isolation by distance.-Evaluate signatures of local adaptation to distinct climatic conditions for the population clusters by using genotype-environment association methods.-Model the geographic range of our focal species and each genetic cluster, projecting potential changes under future scenarios of climate change and land use.-Conduct dispersal simulations for each genetic cluster by integrating the results of species distribution modeling, barrier constraints, and a cellular automata model of dispersal. (AU)