Impact of climate extremes on ecosystems and human health in Brazil: PULSE-Brazil

• Grant number: 11/51843-2
• Support Opportunities: Regular Research Grants
• Duration: April 01, 2012 - March 31, 2016
• Field of knowledge: Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Geosciences
• Convênio/Acordo: NERC, UKRI
• Principal Investigator: Jose Antonio Marengo Orsini
• Grantee: Jose Antonio Marengo Orsini
• Principal researcher abroad: Peter Michael Cox
• Institution abroad: University of Exeter, Exeter, England
• Host Institution: Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE). Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação (Brasil). São José dos Campos , SP, Brazil

Abstract

The general aim of this NERC-FAPESP joint proposal is to create the PULSE-Brazil system (where "PULSE= Platform for Understanding Long-term Sustainability of Ecosystems") for analyzing, visualizing and understanding the interactions between climate, ecosystems and human health in Amazonia. Our mission, in developing this system, is to facilitate the analysis and interpretation of complex data, by academics, the general public and policymakers. PULSE-Brazil will enable these stakeholders to explore the consequences of different policy options for adaptation and mitigation of environmental change in the Brazilian Amazon. Specifically, the objectives of PULSE-Brazil are to: 1. support collaboration between UK Universities, the Met Office, FIOCRUZ - Brazil, the University of Minas Gerais - Brazil, the National Institute for Space Research (INPE) - Brazil, Brazilian State Governments and the wider international community on topics related to the impact of climate extremes on ecosystem and human health and potential mitigation and adaptation strategies; 2. develop and evaluate a spatially explicit database of recent climate extremes and their impacts on ecosystems and human health to establish the relationships between climatic variables and environmental and human health data; 3. provide future climate change projections for Amazonia using state-of-the-art regional (Eta) and global climate models (MBSCG and UK Met Office-Hadley Centre models), covering a range of emission and land-use scenarios (through an associated Brazilian-funded project); 4. develop a user-friendly GIS-based tool capable of integrating information of recent extremes and their impacts on ecosystems and human health (02) with relevant physical climate variables and metrics from future climate projections (03), supporting stakeholders (i.e. the public in general, government officers and decision makers) and educators to develop their own understanding of the interactions between climate, ecosystems and human health in Amazonia, and ultimately, explore the consequences of different policy options. (AU)

Scientific publications

(6)

(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)

MARENGO, JOSE A.; BERNASCONI, MAURO. Regional differences in aridity/drought conditions over Northeast Brazil: present state and future projections. Climatic Change, v. 129, n. 1-2, p. 103-115, MAR 2015. (13/50538-7, 11/51843-2, 08/58161-1, 08/57719-9)

FONSECA, MARISA G.; ANDERSON, LIANA O.; ARAI, EGIDIO; SHIMABUKURO, YOSIO E.; XAUD, HARON A. M.; XAUD, MARISTELA R.; MADANI, NIMA; WAGNER, FABIEN H.; ARAGAO, LUIZ E. O. C.. Climatic and anthropogenic drivers of northern Amazon fires during the 2015-2016 El Nino event. Ecological Applications, v. 27, n. 8, p. 2514-2527, DEC 2017. (11/51843-2)

MARENGO, J. A.; ESPINOZA, J. C.. Extreme seasonal droughts and floods in Amazonia: causes, trends and impacts. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, v. 36, n. 3, p. 1033-1050, MAR 15 2016. (13/50538-7, 11/51843-2, 08/57719-9)

DE ALBUQUERQUE CAVALCANTI, IRACEMA FONSECA; MARENGO, JOSE A.; ALVES, LINCOLN MUNIZ; COSTA, DUARTE FILIPE. On the opposite relation between extreme precipitation over west Amazon and southeastern Brazil: observations and model simulations. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, v. 37, n. 9, p. 3606-3618, JUL 2017. (12/51876-0, 11/51843-2, 08/57719-9)

FONSECA, MARISA G.; ARAGAO, LUIZ EDUARDO O. C.; LIMA, ANDRE; SHIMABUKURO, YOSIO E.; ARAI, EGIDIO; ANDERSON, LIANA O.. Modelling fire probability in the Brazilian Amazon using the maximum entropy method. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF WILDLAND FIRE, v. 25, n. 9, p. 955-969, 2016. (11/51843-2)

OBREGON, GUILLERMO O.; MARENGO, JOSE A.; NOBRE, CARLOS A.. Rainfall and climate variability: long-term trends in the Metropolitan Area of Sao Paulo in the 20th century. CLIMATE RESEARCH, v. 61, n. 2, p. 93-107, SEP 2014. (13/50538-7, 11/51843-2, 08/58161-1, 08/57719-9)