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Coupled ocean-atmosphere climate predictability study over South America and the Tropical Atlantic

Grant number: 05/00915-2
Support Opportunities:Regular Research Grants
Duration: October 01, 2005 - September 30, 2007
Field of knowledge:Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Geosciences
Principal Investigator:Paulo Nobre
Grantee:Paulo Nobre
Host Institution: Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE). Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação (Brasil). São José dos Campos , SP, Brazil


Two elements of the climate system stand out to modulate climate variability over South America: sea surface temperature (SST) over the Tropical and South Atlantic, and atmospheric convection over cool waters, as it is the case with the South America Convergence Zone (SACZ). While dynamic and statistical models are barely capable to predict SST over the South Atlantic better then persistence, atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM) present negative skill to simulate seasonal variability associated with the SACZ. Recent literature indicate the inherent lack of coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions of AGCMs as one of the principal factors to explain the inability of AGCMs to simulate the SACZ behavior. Also, there are indications that SST variability over the Tropical and South Atlantic are 1-D flux driven at the ocean surface. Therefore, it seems appropriate to use coupled ocean-atmosphere models to study seasonal climate variability over South America and SST over the Tropical Atlantic. This research proposal is aimed at studying the seasonal climate predictability over South America and sea surface temperature over the tropical and South Atlantic Ocean using a suite of atmospheric, oceanic and coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM. For that end, it is proposed to carry out a battery of ensemble prediction and simulation numerical experiments making use of the GCMs available at CPTEC. The simulated and predicted ensemble means will be compared against observations both of precipitation over South America and SST over the tropical Atlantic. (AU)

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Scientific publications
(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)
NOBRE, PAULO; MALAGUTTI, MARTA; URBANO, DOMINGOS F.; DE ALMEIDA, ROBERTO A. F.; GIAROLLA, EMANUEL. Amazon Deforestation and Climate Change in a Coupled Model Simulation. Journal of Climate, v. 22, n. 21, p. 5686-5697, . (05/00915-2)
PILOTTO, ISABEL L.; CHOU, SIN CHAN; NOBRE, PAULO. Seasonal climate hindcasts with Eta model nested in CPTEC coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY, v. 110, n. 3, p. 437-456, . (05/00915-2)
NOBRE, PAULO; DE ALMEIDA, ROBERTO A.; MALAGUTTI, MARTA; GIAROLLA, EMANUEL. Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Variations over the South Atlantic Ocean. Journal of Climate, v. 25, n. 18, p. 6349-6358, . (05/00915-2)

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