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Feedback loop interactions between land use change and food security dynamics - DEVIL

Grant number: 14/50627-2
Support type:Research Program on Global Climate Change - Thematic Grants
Duration: January 01, 2015 - December 31, 2018
Field of knowledge:Agronomical Sciences - Forestry Resources and Forestry Engineering - Techniques and Operations in Forestry
Cooperation agreement: Belmont Forum
Principal Investigator:Jean Pierre Henry Balbaud Ometto
Grantee:Jean Pierre Henry Balbaud Ometto
Principal investigator abroad: Pete Smith
Institution abroad: University of Aberdeen, Scotland
Home Institution: Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE). Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia, Inovações e Comunicações (Brasil). São José dos Campos , SP, Brazil
Associated scholarship(s):16/02773-5 - Devil: promoting food security with restricted land availability, BP.PD

Abstract

We will examine the challenge of delivering food security now and in the future on limited area, which will entail examining feedback Interactions between land use change and food security dynamics. We will use the high resolution, spatially disaggregated global models and databases of soils, land-use, crops and livestock, developed by consortium partners as the basis for the analysis. We will use the global FEEDME model, informed by FAO statistics and nutritional demand, to derive country level dietary demands for food products. We will develop and use a country-level agent based model, that includes economic and sociopolitical constraints on food production and trade between countries, to satisfy the demand for food either locally, or through trade (constrained by International trade statistics), given the soil, crop and livestock resources available. Performance of the modeling system will be tested against current statistics on food (in)security, and spatial data on hotspots of land use change. The system will be considered adequate If it Is able to replicate the current status. Once evaluated, the modeling system will be used to examine a range of scenarios Including a) production side measures to improve food security, through: i) sustainable intensification (closing the yield gap; improving livestock), ii) redistribution and trade, and b) demand side measures through i) changing diets, ii) reduced waste (pre- and post-harvest). The feedback interactions between these drivers of change and land use, and the feedback to food supply will be examined globally. Additional regional analysis will examine Impacts on food security, land use change and selected ecosystem services in three regions that are key for food security and land use change: South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and South America. We anticipate that this work will yield high impact papers and information critical to policy makers, Industry and other stakeholders. The project will contribute to Future Earth, CCAFS, the Global Land Project and the Programme for Ecosystem Change and Society. (AU)

Articles published in other media outlets (22 total):
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Estadão.com: Mudanças climáticas podem afetar áreas de proteção ambiental, diz estudo (10/Oct/2019)
Veja online: Áreas de proteção ambiental estão vulneráveis a mudanças climáticas (10/Oct/2019)
Phys.Org (Reino Unido): Study shows how climate change may affect environmental conservation areas (31/Oct/2019)
Nature World News (EUA): Study Shows How Climate Change May Affect Environmental Conservation Areas (31/Oct/2019)
Meio Ambiente: Mudanças climáticas afetarão biodiversidade de áreas de proteção ambiental (31/Oct/2019)
Mindzilla (Reino Unido): Study Shows How Climate Change may Affect Environmental Conservation Areas (31/Oct/2019)
Propuesta.com.uy (Uruguai): Cambio climático puede afectar áreas de protección ambiental (31/Oct/2019)
Jornal Joseense News: Mudanças climáticas podem afetar áreas de proteção ambiental, diz estudo (15/Oct/2019)
Brasil CT&I: Mudanças climáticas podem afetar áreas de proteção ambiental, diz estudo (14/Oct/2019)
EcoDebate: Emergência Climática – Mudanças climáticas podem afetar a biodiversidade de áreas de proteção ambiental (11/Oct/2019)
Espaço Ecológico no Ar: Áreas de proteção ambiental estão vulneráveis a mudanças climáticas (11/Oct/2019)
ArqBrasil: Mudanças climáticas podem afetar áreas de proteção (11/Oct/2019)
Terra: Mudanças climáticas podem afetar áreas de proteção ambiental, diz estudo (10/Oct/2019)
Confap - Conselho Nacional das Fundações Estaduais de Amparo à Pesquisa: Áreas de proteção ambiental estão vulneráveis a mudanças climáticas (10/Oct/2019)
Espaço Ecológico no Ar: Áreas de proteção ambiental estão vulneráveis a mudanças climáticas (10/Oct/2019)
Revista Ecológico online: Mudanças climáticas podem afetar áreas de proteção ambiental, diz estudo (10/Oct/2019)
Blog Jornal da Mulher: Áreas de proteção ambiental estão vulneráveis a mudanças climáticas (10/Oct/2019)
Sou Ecológico: Mudanças climáticas podem afetar áreas de proteção ambiental, diz estudo (10/Oct/2019)
Portal Neo Mondo: Áreas de proteção ambiental estão vulneráveis a mudanças climáticas (10/Oct/2019)
Portal Varada: Áreas de proteção ambiental estão vulneráveis a mudanças climáticas (10/Oct/2019)
Jornal Integração: Mudanças climáticas podem afetar áreas de proteção ambiental, diz estudo (10/Oct/2019)
Head Topics (Brasil): Áreas de proteção ambiental estão vulneráveis a mudanças climáticas (10/Oct/2019)

Scientific publications (9)
(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)
POMPEU, JOAO; GERAGE, JACQUELINE; OMETTO, JEAN. A spatiotemporal database on the energy, macro and micro-nutrients from the Brazilian agricultural production. DATA IN BRIEF, v. 30, JUN 2020. Web of Science Citations: 0.
LAPOLA, DAVID M.; DA SILVA, JOSE MARIA C.; BRAGA, DIEGO R.; CARPIGIANI, LARISSA; OGAWA, FERNANDA; TORRES, ROGER R.; BARBOSA, LUIS C. F.; OMETTO, JEAN P. H. B.; JOLY, CARLOS A. A climate-change vulnerability and adaptation assessment for Brazil's protected areas. Conservation Biology, OCT 2019. Web of Science Citations: 1.
GOMES, LUCIENE; SIMOES, SILVIO J. C.; DALLA NORA, ELOI LENNON; DE SOUSA-NETO, ERICLITO RODRIGUES; FORTI, MARIA CRISTINA; OMETTO, JEAN PIERRE H. B. Agricultural Expansion in the Brazilian Cerrado: Increased Soil and Nutrient Losses and Decreased Agricultural Productivity. LAND, v. 8, n. 1 JAN 2019. Web of Science Citations: 4.
LAPOLA, DAVID M.; PINHO, PATRICIA; QUESADA, CARLOS A.; STRASSBURG, BERNARDO B. N.; RAMMIG, ANJA; KRUIJT, BART; BROWN, FOSTER; OMETTO, JEAN P. H. B.; PREMEBIDA, ADRIANO; MARENGO, JOSE A.; VERGARA, WALTER; NOBRE, CARLOS A. Limiting the high impacts of Amazon forest dieback with no-regrets science and policy action. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, v. 115, n. 46, p. 11671-11679, NOV 13 2018. Web of Science Citations: 3.
POMPEU, JOAO; SOLER, LUCIANA; OMETTO, JEAN. Modelling Land Sharing and Land Sparing Relationship with Rural Population in the Cerrado. LAND, v. 7, n. 3 SEP 2018. Web of Science Citations: 0.
DE MENDONCA, HENRIQUE VIEIRA; MARTINS, CARLOS EUGENIO; DUARTE DA ROCHA, WADSON SEBASTIAO; VIEIRA BORGES, CRISTIANO AMANCIO; HENRY BALBAUD OMETTO, JEAN PIERRE; OTENIO, MARCELO HENRIQUE. Biofertilizer Replace Urea as a Source of Nitrogen for Sugarcane Production. WATER AIR AND SOIL POLLUTION, v. 229, n. 7 JUL 2018. Web of Science Citations: 0.
DE MENDONCA, HENRIQUE VIEIRA; HENRY BALBAUD OMETTO, JEAN PIERRE; OTENIO, MARCELO HENRIQUE; DELGADO DOS REIS, ALBERTO JOSE; RAMOS MARQUES, ISABEL PAULA. Bioenergy recovery from cattle wastewater in an UASB-AF hybrid reactor. WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY, v. 76, n. 9, p. 2268-2279, NOV 2017. Web of Science Citations: 2.
NOLASCO, CAMILLE L.; SOLER, LUCIANA S.; FREITAS, MARCOS W. D.; LAHSEN, MYANNA; OMETTO, JEAN P. H. B. Scenarios of Vegetable Demand vs. Production in Brazil: The Links between Nutritional Security and Small Farming. LAND, v. 6, n. 3 SEP 2017. Web of Science Citations: 2.
DUTRA AGUIAR, ANA PAULA; GUIMARAES VIEIRA, IMA CELIA; ASSIS, TALITA OLIVEIRA; DALLA-NORA, ELOI L.; TOLEDO, PETER MANN; OLIVEIRA SANTOS-JUNIOR, ROBERTO ARAUJO; BATISTELLA, MATEUS; COELHO, ANDREA SANTOS; SAVAGET, ELZA KAWAKAMI; OLIVEIRA CRUZ ARAGAO, LUIZ EDUARDO; NOBRE, CARLOS AFONSO; OMETTO, JEAN PIERRE H. Land use change emission scenarios: anticipating a forest transition process in the Brazilian Amazon. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, v. 22, n. 5, p. 1821-1840, MAY 2016. Web of Science Citations: 46.

Please report errors in scientific publications list by writing to: cdi@fapesp.br.