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Feedback loop interactions between land use change and food security dynamics - DEVIL

Abstract

We will examine the challenge of delivering food security now and in the future on limited area, which will entail examining feedback Interactions between land use change and food security dynamics. We will use the high resolution, spatially disaggregated global models and databases of soils, land-use, crops and livestock, developed by consortium partners as the basis for the analysis. We will use the global FEEDME model, informed by FAO statistics and nutritional demand, to derive country level dietary demands for food products. We will develop and use a country-level agent based model, that includes economic and sociopolitical constraints on food production and trade between countries, to satisfy the demand for food either locally, or through trade (constrained by International trade statistics), given the soil, crop and livestock resources available. Performance of the modeling system will be tested against current statistics on food (in)security, and spatial data on hotspots of land use change. The system will be considered adequate If it Is able to replicate the current status. Once evaluated, the modeling system will be used to examine a range of scenarios Including a) production side measures to improve food security, through: i) sustainable intensification (closing the yield gap; improving livestock), ii) redistribution and trade, and b) demand side measures through i) changing diets, ii) reduced waste (pre- and post-harvest). The feedback interactions between these drivers of change and land use, and the feedback to food supply will be examined globally. Additional regional analysis will examine Impacts on food security, land use change and selected ecosystem services in three regions that are key for food security and land use change: South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and South America. We anticipate that this work will yield high impact papers and information critical to policy makers, Industry and other stakeholders. The project will contribute to Future Earth, CCAFS, the Global Land Project and the Programme for Ecosystem Change and Society. (AU)

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Scientific publications (11)
(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)
POMPEU, JOAO; NOLASCO, CAMILLE L.; WEST, PAUL; SMITH, PETE; GERAGE, JACQUELINE; OMETTO, JEAN. Is domestic agricultural production sufficient to meet national food nutrient needs in Brazil?. PLoS One, v. 16, n. 5, . (14/50627-2)
GOMES, LUCIENE; SIMOES, SILVIO J. C.; DALLA NORA, ELOI LENNON; DE SOUSA-NETO, ERICLITO RODRIGUES; FORTI, MARIA CRISTINA; OMETTO, JEAN PIERRE H. B.. Agricultural Expansion in the Brazilian Cerrado: Increased Soil and Nutrient Losses and Decreased Agricultural Productivity. LAND, v. 8, n. 1, . (14/50627-2)
DE MENDONCA, HENRIQUE VIEIRA; MARTINS, CARLOS EUGENIO; DUARTE DA ROCHA, WADSON SEBASTIAO; VIEIRA BORGES, CRISTIANO AMANCIO; HENRY BALBAUD OMETTO, JEAN PIERRE; OTENIO, MARCELO HENRIQUE. Biofertilizer Replace Urea as a Source of Nitrogen for Sugarcane Production. WATER AIR AND SOIL POLLUTION, v. 229, n. 7, . (14/50627-2)
NOLASCO, CAMILLE L.; SOLER, LUCIANA S.; FREITAS, MARCOS W. D.; LAHSEN, MYANNA; OMETTO, JEAN P. H. B.. Scenarios of Vegetable Demand vs. Production in Brazil: The Links between Nutritional Security and Small Farming. LAND, v. 6, n. 3, . (14/50627-2, 16/02773-5)
LAPOLA, DAVID M.; PINHO, PATRICIA; QUESADA, CARLOS A.; STRASSBURG, BERNARDO B. N.; RAMMIG, ANJA; KRUIJT, BART; BROWN, FOSTER; OMETTO, JEAN P. H. B.; PREMEBIDA, ADRIANO; MARENGO, JOSE A.; et al. Limiting the high impacts of Amazon forest dieback with no-regrets science and policy action. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, v. 115, n. 46, p. 11671-11679, . (14/50848-9, 15/02537-7, 14/50627-2)
LAPOLA, DAVID M.; DA SILVA, JOSE MARIA C.; BRAGA, DIEGO R.; CARPIGIANI, LARISSA; OGAWA, FERNANDA; TORRES, ROGER R.; BARBOSA, LUIS C. F.; OMETTO, JEAN P. H. B.; JOLY, CARLOS A.. A climate-change vulnerability and adaptation assessment for Brazil's protected areas. Conservation Biology, v. 34, n. 2, p. 11-pg., . (12/08250-3, 14/50627-2, 12/51872-5)
POMPEU, JOAO; GERAGE, JACQUELINE; OMETTO, JEAN. A spatiotemporal database on the energy, macro and micro-nutrients from the Brazilian agricultural production. DATA IN BRIEF, v. 30, . (14/50627-2)
LAPOLA, DAVID M.; DA SILVA, JOSE MARIA C.; BRAGA, DIEGO R.; CARPIGIANI, LARISSA; OGAWA, FERNANDA; TORRES, ROGER R.; BARBOSA, LUIS C. F.; OMETTO, JEAN P. H. B.; JOLY, CARLOS A.. A climate-change vulnerability and adaptation assessment for Brazil's protected areas. Conservation Biology, . (12/51872-5, 14/50627-2, 12/08250-3)
DE MENDONCA, HENRIQUE VIEIRA; HENRY BALBAUD OMETTO, JEAN PIERRE; OTENIO, MARCELO HENRIQUE; DELGADO DOS REIS, ALBERTO JOSE; RAMOS MARQUES, ISABEL PAULA. Bioenergy recovery from cattle wastewater in an UASB-AF hybrid reactor. WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY, v. 76, n. 9, p. 2268-2279, . (14/50627-2)
POMPEU, JOAO; SOLER, LUCIANA; OMETTO, JEAN. Modelling Land Sharing and Land Sparing Relationship with Rural Population in the Cerrado. LAND, v. 7, n. 3, . (16/02773-5, 14/50627-2)
DUTRA AGUIAR, ANA PAULA; GUIMARAES VIEIRA, IMA CELIA; ASSIS, TALITA OLIVEIRA; DALLA-NORA, ELOI L.; TOLEDO, PETER MANN; OLIVEIRA SANTOS-JUNIOR, ROBERTO ARAUJO; BATISTELLA, MATEUS; COELHO, ANDREA SANTOS; SAVAGET, ELZA KAWAKAMI; OLIVEIRA CRUZ ARAGAO, LUIZ EDUARDO; et al. Land use change emission scenarios: anticipating a forest transition process in the Brazilian Amazon. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, v. 22, n. 5, p. 1821-1840, . (14/50627-2)

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