Immediate precipitation prediction system: a study on convective systems propagation

• Grant number: 05/03337-0
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Master
• Effective date (Start): May 01, 2006
• Effective date (End): March 31, 2008
• Field of knowledge: Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Geosciences - Meteorology
• Principal Investigator: Luiz Augusto Toledo Machado
• Grantee: Alan James Peixoto Calheiros
• Host Institution: Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE). Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação (Brasil). São José dos Campos , SP, Brazil

Abstract

Knowledge of convective system evolution is of fundamental importance for understanding weather and climate, particularly in the tropics, and it is essential to improve forecasting of these systems to reduce vulnerability to extreme weather damage. The identification of predictor parameters for the evolution of a convective system, based on its previous evolution, could make a significative contribution to a nowcasting schemes. This project intends to develop a nowcasting method based in the FORTRACC, forecasting and tracking of cloud cluster and the Hydroestimator, a methodology to estimate precipitation from satellite images. Based in the results from the tracking of the precipitation structures the storm propagation will be studied and compared against the mean wind field, convective system types and others parameters. The basic data for this analysis will be the GOES image each third minute. To conduct the development of this nowcasting model will be necessary to know the statistical behavior of the precipitation structures during the lifecycle. We intend to develop the nowcasting precipitation model based in the extrapolation in time and space the precipitation field from Hydroestimator using the FORTRACC technique and the knowledge about the storm propagation and evolution. This study will be also useful to understand the movement of the rainfall cells. Nowcasting techniques, which are not as computationally intensive, have a very important role to play in the time frame between 0 to 6 hours, where numerical model do not have good skill.