Technological forecasting and scenarios: perspectives for the cosmetic industry in Brazil

• Grant number: 11/04992-2
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Master
• Start date: March 01, 2012
• End date: September 30, 2012
• Field of knowledge: Health Sciences - Pharmacy
• Principal Investigator: Vania Passarini Takahashi
• Grantee: Ivan Domicio da Silva Souza
• Host Institution: Faculdade de Ciências Farmacêuticas de Ribeirão Preto (FCFRP). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Ribeirão Preto , SP, Brazil

Abstract

In recent decades, factors such as increased life expectancy and the relentless pursue for maintaining a healthy and youthful appearance have leaded the growth of cosmetic industry throughout the world. Moreover, the increasing focus of media on beauty and health has contributed to the rise of a more demanding market of cosmetics consumers. As a result, currently is expected that a cosmetic product performs much more than a decorative function, i. e., it is expected that cosmetics be increasingly effective against skin aging. This new demand for more sophisticated technology is driving the development of science and technology in this sector, turning the ability to innovate a prerequisite for the survival of cosmetic companies in the existing competitive scenario. This research project aims to study the prospects of the cosmetic industry in Brazil, identifying throttles, barriers and challenges, culminating in the suggestion of public actions and policies for innovation. In order to achieve this goal, tools like technological forecasting and prospective scenarios, which constitute a pervasive device for the situational diagnosis will be employed, monitoring and decision making, reducing conflict over perceptions concerning the future and improving the quality of strategic actions and decisions, contributing to the formulation of these requirements. The methodology used is the exploratory-descriptive qualitative research. And the methods and procedure are in the first step bibliographical studies under the themes: technological innovation, innovation in the cosmetic industry, analysis of macro and microenvironment, in order to identify key trends and critical uncertainties that will lead the array of scenarios. For technological forecasting tools like forescating, foresight and perspective will be used. For the development of scenarios will be used the approach of Godet. Following, proposals for policies and actions for the development and growth will be presented, thats why are also identified possible indicators to understand the behavior of the variables and critical uncertainties in the direction of the scenarios, or even of the array of scenarios.