Integrated Expansion Planning of the electric power generation and transmission systems in Brazil

• Grant number: 12/08704-4
• Support type: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctorate
• Effective date (Start): August 01, 2012
• Effective date (End): July 31, 2014
• Field of knowledge: Engineering - Electrical Engineering - Power Systems
• Principal researcher: Secundino Soares Filho
• Grantee: Mônica de Souza Zambelli
• Home Institution: Faculdade de Engenharia Elétrica e de Computação (FEEC). Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP). Campinas , SP, Brazil

Abstract

The expansion planning of electric power generation is an essential tool to support the sustainable economic growth of the country, since the expansion of productive investment requires energy supply with quality, safety and low tariffs.In Brazil the model used for expansion planning is based on stochastic optimization and multi-objective analysis, which involves dividing the problem into two sub-problems: investment and operation. The expansion program is obtained from numerous simulations, with successive changes of system configuration, in order to minimize costs (investment and operation). These changes are made on the basis of trial and error by including projects of generating units and reinforcements in the electric network selected from a limited set of projects for a planning horizon of ten to thirty years forward.Due to the great complexity of the problem in the case of the Brazilian system, in order to provide the feasibility of computational models, the accuracy of representation was lost and the indicative planning has been providing optimal solutions for a problem that no longer represents the reality. Thus the indicators resulting from these models give wrong signals to the agents and the established targets are often impossible to be fulfilled.This work aims to develop and evaluate a new proposal for the simulation of expansion plans for the Brazilian power system, joining the generation and transmission systems. A methodology based on open-loop control will be applied, exploring the use of forecasting models for dealing with the uncertainties related to inflows, along with optimization and simulation models that represent the generating plants in detail, with all hydraulic constraints and dynamic aspects modeled individually. The solutions related to the generation system will be verified to consist their viability regarding the transmission network, which will be detailed as precisely as possible in accordance with the official data available.