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Development and evaluation of mathematical models for predicting the rate of passage in growing goats

Grant number: 13/06845-2
Support type:Scholarships in Brazil - Master
Effective date (Start): July 01, 2013
Effective date (End): July 31, 2015
Field of knowledge:Agronomical Sciences - Animal Husbandry
Principal Investigator:Izabelle Auxiliadora Molina de Almeida Teixeira
Grantee:Thiago Francisco Ventoso Bompadre
Home Institution: Faculdade de Ciências Agrárias e Veterinárias (FCAV). Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP). Campus de Jaboticabal. Jaboticabal , SP, Brazil
Associated scholarship(s):14/09229-3 - Development and evaluation of empirical and dynamic models for predicting passage rate in growing Saanen goats, BE.EP.MS

Abstract

In ruminants, the digestion of food and nutrients depends on several factors such as the fractional rate of fermentation (kd), the fractional rate of passage (kp), enzymatic hidrolysis of digesta and possible fermentation in the large intestine. Passage rate has great influence on particle retention in the rumen, moreover, has relation with potential dry matter intake (DMI), amount of undegraded protein in the rumen, efficiency of microbial flora, methane emission and susceptibility of the animal to tympanism. Knowing the importance of passage rate in ruminant nutrition, many researchers have, over the years, focused on describing mathematical models for applying it in feeding systems for predicting animal performance and diet balance, however most of feeding systems did not took into account data from goats. Therefore, the objective of the present study is to develop and evaluate mathematical models for predicting passage rate in growing goats. The database to develop equations will come from data generated by FAPESP Project JP - 2008/57302-0, which includes 260 goat kids (from 5 to 45 kg BW). The trials finished December 2012, thus it is possible to use all the data to develop the models. The equations will be developed using random coefficients model analysis. A model that will have the lowest value of AIC, AICC and BIC will be selected. Dynamic simulations will be conducted with the software Vensim professional version 5.0a. The sensitivity analysis will be performed using the Monte Carlo technique. Equation precision will be measured with the coefficient of determination (R2) of the linear regression between observed and predicted values whereas the accuracy is determined based on the concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) and the mean square error of prediction (MSEP). (AU)

Academic Publications
(References retrieved automatically from State of São Paulo Research Institutions)
BOMPADRE, Thiago Francisco Ventoso. Avaliação de modelos empíricos para determinação da taxa de passagem de caprinos em crescimento. 2015. Master's Dissertation - Universidade Estadual Paulista "Júlio de Mesquita Filho" Faculdade de Ciências Agrárias e Veterinárias..

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