Extreme lightning events in São Paulo: Cases observed and future scenarios

• Grant number: 13/09557-8
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate
• Effective date (Start): March 01, 2014
• Effective date (End): June 30, 2017
• Field of knowledge: Interdisciplinary Subjects
• Principal Investigator: Osmar Pinto Junior
• Grantee: Ana Paula Paes dos Santos
• Host Institution: Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE). Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovações (Brasil). São José dos Campos , SP, Brazil

Abstract

The study of lightning is a topic that has been gaining significant attention in the scientific community , because from the monitoring periods of increased incidence of discharges can issue warnings characteristics such as intensity , duration and severity of storms , allowing preventive measures to be taken in short term, to minimize impacts of severe weather phenomena . Thus , the aim of this work is to investigate the atmospheric conditions associated with extreme events by lightning in the state of São Paulo . The data series of lightning networks RINDAT since 1999 ( cloud -to-ground discharges ) and BrasilDAT since 2011 ( discharge cloud -to-ground and intra - cloud) substantiate this research . The extremes of lightning will be selected by using the method of percentiles . For the analysis of weather conditions associated with these events, we used data from atmospheric reanalysis of the National Centers for Environmental Predictions / National Center for Atmospheric Research ( NCEP / NCAR ) , radar and satellite images , and combinations of weather variables obtained by through numerical simulations of high spatial resolution mesoscale model Weather Research and Forecasting ( WRF ) . In addition , a study will be made of the possible influence of teleconnections in the number of weather systems generating events of intense electrical activity , and how these conditions may change due to climate change . In this research topic , will be used projections of future scenarios , obtained by the Brazilian Model of the Earth System ( MBST ) and regional climate models obtained from global models . With the end of the research , it is expected intrinsic information of the occurrence of severe lightning , as well as future projections of this phenomenon .

Scientific publications

(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)

PAES DOS SANTOS, ANA PAULA; COELHO, CAIO A. S.; PINTO JUNIOR, OSMAR; QUADROS DOS SANTOS, SERGIO RODRIGO; LOPES DE LIMA, FRANCISCO JOSE; DE SOUZA, EVERALDO BARREIROS. Climatic diagnostics associated with anomalous lightning incidence during the summer 2012/2013 in Southeast Brazil. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, v. 38, n. 2, p. 996-1009, FEB 2018. (15/50687-8, 13/09557-8)