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Ensemble nowcasting system from radar data for flash floods alerts

Grant number: 17/00275-0
Support type:Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctorate
Effective date (Start): June 01, 2017
Effective date (End): February 09, 2019
Field of knowledge:Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Geosciences
Principal Investigator:Carlos Frederico de Angelis
Grantee:Angélica Nardo Caseri
Home Institution: Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Nacionais (CEMADEN). Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia, Inovações e Comunicações (Brasil). Cachoeira Paulista , SP, Brazil
Associated research grant:15/14497-0 - Nowcasting of intense thunderstorms and understanding of the physical processes inside clouds: the SOS-CHUVA (Severe Weather Observation System), AP.PFPMCG.TEM

Abstract

Flash floods can generate major natural disasters that can be responsible for life losses and severe socioeconomic damages. Nowcasting alert systems are essential to anticipate the arrival of these events and reduce their impacts. The main objective of these systems is to inform the authorities and the population sufficiently in advance to ensure safeguarding of property and people. Radar data can help to develop nowcasting system using the information of spatial-time variability of the rainfall. Due to the difficult predictability of these events, the alerts provided by a nowcasting system have uncertainties. One the approach most widely used to take into account these uncertainties is to generate an ensemble of precipitation nowcast. The aim of this research is to develop a method to generate ensemble nowcasting alerts of flash floods using a framework that applies a geostatistical conditional simulation to generate ensemble rainfall nowcasts and a hydrological model to transform the rainfall in runoff. The method will be applied in the region of Campinas city, considering the information of the radar recently installed in Campinas, as part of the FAPESP thematic project 144970. (AU)

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