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Yellow fever: transmission risk due to landscape changes and climate alterations

Grant number: 17/11666-0
Support type:Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctorate
Effective date (Start): September 01, 2017
Effective date (End): January 31, 2020
Field of knowledge:Biological Sciences - Ecology
Principal Investigator:Jean Paul Walter Metzger
Grantee:Paula Ribeiro Prist
Home Institution: Instituto de Biociências (IB). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
Associated research grant:13/23457-6 - Interface project: relationships among landscape structure, ecological processes, biodiversity and ecosystem services, AP.BTA.TEM
Associated scholarship(s):18/23364-1 - Spatial-temporal dynamics of yellow fever virus in the State of São Paulo, Brazil, BE.EP.PD

Abstract

Yellow fever is a haemorrhagic fever that affects about 200,000 people annually in the endemic regions and its transmission in its wild cycle through the bite of infected Haemagogus spp. and Sabethes spp. mosquitos. These species become more abundant in fragmented and degraded landscapes, increasing the transmission risk for this disease. Climatic factors can also positively influence the life cycle of the vectors, accelerating the development of early life stages, the longevity of females, and increasing the available larvae habitats in the environment. However, our understanding of how these factors affect yellow fever infection risk remains limited. To understand these effects, nonhuman primates constitute a privileged study element. Together with man, they are the main hosts of the virus, serving as an alert to the health agencies about the circulation of the agent and the need of immediate vaccination in humans. Thus, the objectives of this project are: 1) to assess which landscape structure and climate factors are related to yellow fever virus infection in non-human primates, identifying areas of higher risk for virus transmission, and to 2) predict the risks of virus transmission in future scenarios of climate change. For this we will use a Bayesian model and relate the spatial distribution of the 2007-2008 epizootics events with the amount of native vegetation cover, border density, temperature and precipitation. The results of this research may contribute to a better understanding of the transmission dynamics of yellow fever in Brazil and to a lower cost and more effective implementation of surveillance systems and allocation of resources in vaccination campaigns of human communities in endemic areas.

Scientific publications
(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)
MUYLAERT, RENATA L.; SABINO-SANTOS JR, GILBERTO; PRIST, PAULA R.; OSHIMA, JULIA E. F.; NIEBUHR, BERNARDO BRANDAO; SOBRAL-SOUZA, THADEU; DE OLIVEIRA, STEFAN VILGES; BOVENDORP, RICARDO SIQUEIRA; MARSHALL, JONATHAN C.; HAYMAN, DAVID T. S.; RIBEIRO, MILTON CEZAR. Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Hantavirus Cardiopulmonary Syndrome Transmission Risk in Brazil. Viruses-Basel, v. 11, n. 11 NOV 2019. Web of Science Citations: 1.
MUYLAERT, RENATA L.; BOVENDORP, RICARDO SIQUEIRA; SABINO-SANTOS, JR., GILBERTO; PRIST, PAULA R.; MELO, GERUZA LEAL; PRIANTE, CAMILA DE FATIMA; WILKINSON, DAVID A.; RIBEIRO, MILTON CEZAR; HAYMAN, DAVID T. S. Hantavirus host assemblages and human disease in the Atlantic Forest. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, v. 13, n. 8 AUG 2019. Web of Science Citations: 1.
METZGER, JEAN PAUL; BUSTAMANTE, MERCEDES M. C.; FERREIRA, JOICE; FERNANDES, GERALDO WILSON; LIBRAN-EMBID, FELIPE; PILLAR, VALERIO D.; PRIST, PAULA R.; RODRIGUES, RICARDO RIBEIRO; VIEIRA, IMA CELIA G.; OVERBECK, GERHARD E.; SIGNATORIES, 407 SCIENTIST. Why Brazil needs its Legal Reserves. PERSPECTIVES IN ECOLOGY AND CONSERVATION, v. 17, n. 3, p. 91-103, JUL-SEP 2019. Web of Science Citations: 2.

Please report errors in scientific publications list by writing to: cdi@fapesp.br.