Yellow fever is a haemorrhagic fever that affects about 200,000 people annually in the endemic regions and its transmission in its wild cycle through the bite of infected Haemagogus spp. and Sabethes spp. mosquitos. These species become more abundant in fragmented and degraded landscapes, increasing the transmission risk for this disease. Climatic factors can also positively influence the life cycle of the vectors, accelerating the development of early life stages, the longevity of females, and increasing the available larvae habitats in the environment. However, our understanding of how these factors affect yellow fever infection risk remains limited. To understand these effects, nonhuman primates constitute a privileged study element. Together with man, they are the main hosts of the virus, serving as an alert to the health agencies about the circulation of the agent and the need of immediate vaccination in humans. Thus, the objectives of this project are: 1) to assess which landscape structure and climate factors are related to yellow fever virus infection in non-human primates, identifying areas of higher risk for virus transmission, and to 2) predict the risks of virus transmission in future scenarios of climate change. For this we will use a Bayesian model and relate the spatial distribution of the 2007-2008 epizootics events with the amount of native vegetation cover, border density, temperature and precipitation. The results of this research may contribute to a better understanding of the transmission dynamics of yellow fever in Brazil and to a lower cost and more effective implementation of surveillance systems and allocation of resources in vaccination campaigns of human communities in endemic areas.
News published in Agência FAPESP Newsletter about the scholarship:
METZGER, JEAN PAUL; BUSTAMANTE, MERCEDES M. C.; FERREIRA, JOICE; FERNANDES, GERALDO WILSON; LIBRAN-EMBID, FELIPE; PILLAR, VALERIO D.; PRIST, PAULA R.; RODRIGUES, RICARDO RIBEIRO; VIEIRA, IMA CELIA G.; OVERBECK, GERHARD E.; et al. Why Brazil needs its Legal Reserves. PERSPECTIVES IN ECOLOGY AND CONSERVATION, v. 17, n. 3, p. 91-103, JUL-SEP 2019. (18/23364-1, 17/11666-0, 13/50718-5)