The economic and political determinants of presidential approval in Brazil, 1986-2016

• Grant number: 17/18633-0
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Scientific Initiation
• Start date: December 01, 2017
• End date: November 30, 2018
• Field of knowledge: Humanities - Political Science
• Principal Investigator: Lorena Guadalupe Barberia
• Grantee: Maria Leticia Claro de Faria Oliveira
• Host Institution: Faculdade de Filosofia, Letras e Ciências Humanas (FFLCH). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Associated research grant: 16/14525-6 - Political institutions, patterns of executive-legislative relations and government capacity, AP.TEM

Abstract

The present study seeks to study the determinants of presidential popularity in Brazil since the return of democracy to the present in a comparative perspective. Specifically, the project seeks to advance understanding in how economic policy changes influence presidential approval. There are two justifications for this research project and its relevance. First, few systematic studies have examined economic voting in Latin American democracies. Second, the literature on economic voting dedicated to analyzing the Brazilian case has concentrated on analyzing one or a couple of elections with scant attention to concerns regarding the relationship of patterns across time. Seeking to address this lacuna, the present study examines presidential approval dynamics since the return of democracy in Brazil to the present. Using macroeconomic data, the project seeks to answer three questions: Do approval rates vary with changes in economic policy (for example, inflation, unemployment and income growth)? In relative terms, are changes in presidential approval greater when there is greater clarity of responsibility? Are presidents held less accountable for economic performance during periods of economic crisis? (AU)