Modelling tools for climate change predictions

• Grant number: 18/20616-0
• Support type: Scholarships abroad - Research Internship - Post-doctor
• Effective date (Start): April 01, 2019
• Effective date (End): November 30, 2019
• Field of knowledge: Biological Sciences - Ecology - Applied Ecology
• Principal Investigator: Tânia Marcia Costa
• Grantee: Murilo Zanetti Marochi
• Supervisor abroad: Lauren Buckley
• Home Institution: Instituto de Biociências (IB-CLP). Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP). Campus Experimental do Litoral Paulista. São Vicente , SP, Brazil
• Local de pesquisa : University of Washington, United States
• Associated to the scholarship: 17/07406-3 - The impact of climate change on coastal fauna: the effect of temperature on larval development of species with commercial interest, BP.PD

Abstract

Climate change already affects the marine environment. One of its main effects is the increase of open ocean and coastal water temperatures, which can disturb the stability of populations and communities in the medium and long term. In commercially exploited species, already under pressure due to direct anthropogenic action, climate change can exacerbate impacts to population dynamics, leading to potential reduction of fishing stocks and the associated negative socioeconomic consequences. Understanding how climate change will affect ecosystems and populations in the future requires projections using existing observations and modelling efforts. With this in mind, we aim to generate numerical model-based predictions of how ocean warming will impact the range and stocks of Ucides cordatus, Menippe nodifrons and Callinectes danae, three species that presently exhibit annual commercial production of more than 4.000 tons along Brazilian coast. Predictions will be based on the survival consequences of thermal stress, estimated by leveraging laboratory data on survival, development, and heart rate. The expectation is that findings from these three-model species could provide insight into how changes in ocean temperatures will impact stocks of other economically important species of the regional coastal fauna. In addition, we seek to integrate scientific results with the management of coastal ecosystems in the context of a changing climate.