Development of predictive models for the dynamics of transmission and spatial dispersion of the sylvatic yellow fever in Brazil.

• Grant number: 18/18751-6
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral
• Start date: March 01, 2019
• End date: February 28, 2023
• Field of knowledge: Biological Sciences - Parasitology - Entomology and Malacology of Parasites and Vectors
• Principal Investigator: Mauro Toledo Marrelli
• Grantee: Antônio Ralph Medeiros de Sousa
• Host Institution: Faculdade de Saúde Pública (FSP). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Associated scholarship(s): 21/10379-3 - Development of a spatially explicit agent-based model to investigate the spread of yellow fever virus between fragmented landscapes, BE.EP.PD

Abstract

The current sylvatic yellow fever outbreak in southeastern Brazil has caused a significant number of deaths in humans and non-human primates, including notifications in areas previously considered free of the disease, such as the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo. The development of models to simulate and predict the transmission and dispersal dynamics of the yellow fever virus may be an alternative both for testing as for proposing new hypotheses about the ecology and epidemiology of the disease, as well as the ability to predict risk situations and identify priority issues to be investigated in empirical studies. Agent-Based Models have been used in many fields of science, given their potential to dynamically represent spatial heterogeneity, the complexity of interactions between individuals, and the patterns that emerge from such interactions. The present proposal aims at the development of Agent-Based Models to test hypotheses and predict the transmission behavior and dispersion of sylvatic yellow fever. Using an object-oriented programming language, a scenario will be developed in which the virus circulates between individual agents represented by vertebrate hosts and vectors of different environments. These models will be parameterized, validated and integrated to a Geographic Information System, allowing simulating the transmission dynamics on an explicit representation of the physical environment in which the viral activity has been observed. Hypotheses will be tested regarding the risk of re-urbanization of yellow fever and the role that humans play in the spread of the virus.

Scientific publications

(6)

(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)

MEDEIROS-SOUSA, ANTONIO RALPH; LAPORTA, GABRIEL ZORELLO; COUTINHO, RENATO MENDES; MUCCI, LUIS FILIPE; MARRELLI, MAURO TOLEDO. A mathematical model for zoonotic transmission of malaria in the Atlantic Forest: Exploring the effects of variations in vector abundance and acrodendrophily. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, v. 15, n. 2, FEB 2021. (14/50444-5, 15/18630-6, 18/18751-6)

OLIVEIRA-CHRISTE, RAFAEL; DE CARVALHO, GABRIELA CRISTINA; WILKE, ANDRE BARRETTO BRUNO; MARRELLI, MAURO TOLEDO. Assessment of wing geometric morphometrics of urban Culex quinquefasciatus (Diptera: Culicidae) populations. Acta Tropica, v. 245, p. 7-pg., 2023-06-20. (18/25437-6, 17/23127-7, 18/18751-6)

WILK-DA-SILVA, RAMON; PRIST, PAULA RIBEIRO; MEDEIROS-SOUSA, ANTONIO RALPH; LAPORTA, GABRIEL ZORELLO; MUCCI, LUIS FILIPE; MARRELLI, MAURO TOLEDO. The role of forest fragmentation in yellow fever virus dispersal. Acta Tropica, v. 245, p. 9-pg., 2023-09-01. (18/25437-6, 17/23127-7, 18/18751-6)

WILK-DA-SILVA, RAMON; MEDERIROS-SOUSA, ANTONIO RALPH; LAPORTA, GABRIEL ZORELLO; MUCCI, LUIS FILIPE; PRIST, PAULA RIBEIRO; MARRELLI, MAURO TOLEDO. The influence of landscape structure on the dispersal pattern of yellow fever virus in the state of Sao Paulo. Acta Tropica, v. 228, p. 9-pg., 2022-02-01. (18/18751-6, 17/23127-7, 18/25437-6)

MEDEIROS-SOUSA, ANTONIO RALPH; LAPORTA, GABRIEL ZORELLO; MUCCI, LUIS FILIPE; MARRELLI, MAURO TOLEDO. Epizootic dynamics of yellow fever in forest fragments: An agent-based model to explore the influence of vector and host parameters. ECOLOGICAL MODELLING, v. 466, p. 11-pg., 2022-01-20. (18/18751-6, 18/25437-6)

WILK-DA-SILVA, RAMON; MEDEIROS-SOUSA, ANTONIO RALPH; MUCCI, LUIS FILIPE; ALONSO, DIEGO PERES; ALVAREZ, MARCUS VINICIUS NIZ; RIBOLLA, PAULO EDUARDO MARTINS; MARRELLI, MAURO TOLEDO. Genetic Structuring of One of the Main Vectors of Sylvatic Yellow Fever: Haemagogus (Conopostegus) leucocelaenus (Diptera: Culicidae). GENES, v. 14, n. 9, p. 16-pg., 2023-09-01. (18/25437-6, 17/23127-7, 18/18751-6)