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Climate risk for the huanglongbing occurrence of the citrus based on models of the dynamics of the vector population and occurrence of buds

Grant number: 17/23497-9
Support type:Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate
Effective date (Start): April 01, 2019
Effective date (End): April 20, 2021
Field of knowledge:Agronomical Sciences - Agronomy - Agricultural Meteorology
Principal researcher:Paulo Cesar Sentelhas
Grantee:Silvane Isabel Brand
Home Institution: Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz (ESALQ). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Piracicaba , SP, Brazil
Associated scholarship(s):19/12174-0 - Climatic risk of occurrence of Huanglongbing (HLB) in the main citrus production regions in Brazil and the United State of America, BE.EP.DR

Abstract

Despite climatic conditions favorable to citrus production in the country, producers are facing difficulties, especially due to the occurrence of diseases, which have limited the sustainability of the enterprises. Currently, the disease of major importance for citrus cultivation, both nationally and internationally, is huanglongbing (HLB), which has required the elimination of thousands of plants from orchards. The disease is transmitted by the psyllid, Diaphorina citri, and has two strains of bacteria, Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus and Candidatus Liberibacter americanus, which are causative agents of the disease in Brazil. Given the great influence that the meteorological conditions have on the dynamics and dispersion of the psyllid population, the objective of this project is to develop a model that allows to simulate the population growth dynamics of the vector that transmits the HLB based on meteorological and cultural variables, allowing an understanding of the occurrence of HLB in orchards. For this, we will use meteorological data and the spatial and temporal variation of the presence of the vector in order to model the dynamics of the psyllid, as well as the citrus phenology in order to identify the budding periods, which are more susceptible to the vector attack. Once the occurrence of the vector is determined, the occurrence of HLB will be estimated. Based on these models, the climatic risk will be determined for the occurrence of HLB in both the farm scale and the regional scale. The spatial and interannual variability of the HLB risk will be analyzed, with an emphasis on the impacts caused by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event. Therefore, it is expected with this project to generate information that will help in the planning of the implementation of citrus orchards and in the decision-making in relation to the strategies of control of the disease.