Modelling towards elimination of malaria in Brazilian Amazon

• Grant number: 19/26310-2
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships abroad - Research Internship - Doctorate
• Start date: September 01, 2020
• End date: June 30, 2021
• Field of knowledge: Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Physics - General Physics
• Principal Investigator: Roberto André Kraenkel
• Grantee: Caroline Franco
• Supervisor: Lisa Jane White
• Host Institution: Instituto de Física Teórica (IFT). Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP). Campus de São Paulo. São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Institution abroad: University of Oxford, England
• Associated to the scholarship: 17/26770-8 - Mathematical models in Population Biology from time-series: applications to Epidemiology and Ecology, BP.DR

Abstract

This project aims the development of a detailed dynamical system model to describe malaria epidemiology inside Brazilian Amazon, where currently over 99% of Brazilian malaria cases occur.The modelling shall be strongly oriented by historic information, experimental literature, consultation with clinical researchers and fitting using an extensive database of malaria incidence throughout Brazil, obtained from the System on Diseases of Compulsory Declaration (SINAN).Connecting with our main FAPESP PhD Project, we shall improve our modelling using time series analysis methods on this dataset, together with meteorological data such as temperature, precipitation and humidity time series. This could lead not only to better fitting, but better selection of significant variables do plug into themodel.Beyond understanding and reproducing the disease's dynamics until now, we should be able to simulate the effect of various intervention scenarios, evaluate their impact and come up with the best possible elimination strategy, tailored specifically for the Brazilian circumstances. (AU)

Scientific publications

(4)

(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)

SOUTO FERREIRA, LEONARDO; CANTON, OTAVIO; DA SILVA, RAFAEL LOPES PAIXAO; POLONI, SILAS; SUDBRACK, VITOR; BORGES, MARCELO EDUARDO; FRANCO, CAROLINE; MARQUITTI, FLAVIA MARIA DARCIE; DE MORAES, JOSE CASSIO; VERAS, MARIA AMELIA DE SOUSA MASCENA; et al. Assessing the best time interval between doses in a two-dose vaccination regimen to reduce the number of deaths in an ongoing epidemic of SARS-CoV-2. PLOS COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY, v. 18, n. 3, p. 15-pg., 2022-03-01. (17/26770-8, 18/24037-4, 16/01343-7, 18/26512-1, 18/23984-0, 19/26310-2)

FLAVIA MARIA DARCIE MARQUITTI; RENATO MENDES COUTINHO; LEONARDO SOUTO FERREIRA; MARCELO EDUARDO BORGES; TATIANA PINEDA PORTELLA; RAFAEL LOPES PAIXÃO DA SILVA; OTAVIO CANTON; SILAS POLONI; CAROLINE FRANCO; VERÔNICA COELHO; et al. O Brasil perante as novas variantes de SARS-CoV-2: emergências e desafios em saúde pública. Revista Brasileira de Epidemiologia, v. 24, 2021-06-07. (19/26310-2, 16/01343-7, 17/26770-8, 18/24037-4, 18/26512-1)

FRANCO, CAROLINE; FERREIRA, LEONARDO SOUTO; SUDBRACK, VITOR; BORGES, MARCELO EDUARDO; POLONI, SILAS; PRADO, PAULO INACIO; WHITE, LISA J.; AGUAS, RICARDO; KRAENKEL, ROBERTO ANDRE; COUTINHO, RENATO MENDES. Percolation across households in mechanistic models of non-pharmaceutical interventions in SARS-CoV-2 disease dynamics. EPIDEMICS, v. 39, p. 8-pg., 2022-03-21. (17/26770-8, 18/24037-4, 19/26310-2, 18/23984-0, 16/01343-7)

COUTINHO, RENATO MENDES; DARCIE MARQUITTI, FLAVIA MARIA; FERREIRA, LEONARDO SOUTO; BORGES, MARCELO EDUARDO; PAIXAO DA SILVA, RAFAEL LOPES; CANTON, OTAVIO; PORTELLA, TATIANA P.; POLONI, SILAS; FRANCO, CAROLINE; PLUCINSKI, MATEUSZ M.; et al. Model-based estimation of transmissibility and reinfection of SARS-CoV-2 P.1 variant. COMMUNICATIONS MEDICINE, v. 1, n. 1, p. 8-pg., 2021-11-15. (18/26512-1, 19/26310-2, 17/26770-8, 16/01343-7, 18/24037-4)