Financial risk analysis and bioeconomic optimization of commercial enterprise producing Oreochromis niloticus in tropical reservoir

• Grant number: 20/00274-7
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Scientific Initiation
• Start date: December 01, 2020
• End date: November 30, 2021
• Field of knowledge: Agronomical Sciences - Fishery Resources and Fishery Engineering - Aquaculture
• Principal Investigator: Guilherme Wolff Bueno
• Grantee: Flavia Cristina Maximo de Godoi
• Host Institution: Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP). Campus de Registro. Registro , SP, Brazil

Abstract

Aquaculture is an activity that stands out in providing protein to a growing population. In this scenario, it's estimated that by 2030, 62% of the fish consumed worldwide will come from aquaculture, especially Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) produced in cages in lakes and reservoirs, which only in the state of São Paulo. Approximately 70% of fish farm. However, the need of knowledge of producers and investors regarding the economic, financial and climatic risks of this activity has caused economic and productive losses, causing many producers to give up the activity. In this context, the project will apply bioeconomic analysis tools to assist in the financial risk analysis and economic optimization of a commercial enterprise producing O. niloticus in cages in the reservoir of the Chavantes Hydroelectric Power Plant, São Paulo. A historical data series from 2015 to 2019 (n = 250) will be used with information on water quality, zootechnical performance and production costs. In parallel, 10 field lots will be monitored during a production cycle to collect the same information obtained in the historical series. Body thermal growth (TGC) modeling will be applied to predict slaughter weight and time, integrating economic modeling to define the costs and profitability of the enterprise. These tools will make it possible to optimize aquaculture processes, assist in the analysis of financial and economic risk of the activity for managers and investors in the sector.