How much flexibility is enough? Effect of production mix in the economic performance of sugar and ethanol industrial plants

• Grant number: 21/11660-8
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Scientific Initiation
• Start date: December 01, 2021
• End date: November 30, 2022
• Field of knowledge: Engineering - Chemical Engineering - Chemical Process Industries
• Principal Investigator: Felipe Fernando Furlan
• Grantee: Ricardo Geraldini de Almeida Duarte
• Host Institution: Centro de Ciências Exatas e de Tecnologia (CCET). Universidade Federal de São Carlos (UFSCAR). São Carlos , SP, Brazil
• Associated research grant: 16/10636-8 - From the cell factory to the Biodiesel-Bioethanol integrated biorefinery: a systems approach applied to complex problems in micro and macroscales, AP.BIOEN.TEM

Abstract

The sugar-energy sector is extremely important for the Brazilian economy and society. Brazil has the largest sugarcane and sugar production in the world and the second largest ethanol production. Sugarcane mills produce ethanol and sugar from sugarcane, while the energy demand of the process is met by burning sugarcane bagasse in cogeneration systems (i.e., systems that produce process steam and electricity). In addition, many plants produce a surplus of electricity that is sold to the grid. Annexed distilleries have the ability to change the proportion of juice diverted to the production of ethanol or sugar (which is called production mix), thus being able to take advantage of the valorization of one or another commodity. Thus, while greater flexibilities allow them to take advantege of these valorizations, they also imply higher costs, especially investment costs in oversized equipment. In this context, this project seeks to analyze the economic viability of plants with different levels of flexibility in face of variations in commodity prices, based on historical data on these prices. To enable the analysis, sugar production will be modeled and incorporated into the ethanol and electricity production process already modeled by the research group, in the EMSO process simulator. Operating and capital costs will also be calculated in the simulator itself. It is expected, through this study, to find a production mix that improves the plant's viability in the face of fluctuations in commodity prices.