Presidentialism beyond the president: partisan calculations and agenda forecasts

• Grant number: 22/08067-6
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral
• Start date: February 01, 2023
• End date: January 31, 2026
• Field of knowledge: Humanities - Political Science - State and Government
• Principal Investigator: Bruno Wilhelm Speck
• Grantee: Pedro Paulo Ferreira Bispo de Assis
• Host Institution: Faculdade de Filosofia, Letras e Ciências Humanas (FFLCH). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil

Abstract

Multiparty presidentialism is governable: in terms of systemic inferences, the discussion about the viability of this system of government by presidential protagonism is the main finding and the current frontier of the state of the art studies in the last two decades. Given the independent mandate, the concentration of legislative powers, the unilateral institutional attributions, and the control over the appointments of the ministerial cabinet, the condition of the executive leader as part of a minority party can be overcome and the government formed (see Limongi and Figueiredo, 2001; Neto, 2006; Cheibub, 2007). The emphasis on the role of the president in understanding the functioning of multiparty presidentialism elucidates a lot about components of the executive and aspects of alliances with the legislature. On the other hand, studies in the area say little about the political competition between parties (the prices of party support) and the agendas performed in such a system of government. The proposal presented here aims to expand the limits of this discussion by approaching presidentialism beyond the president. The research proposes: i) the development of a theory about party calculations (demands and strategies) in the political competition of coalition presidentialism and ii) the elaboration of a forecast model of viable agendas performances in a presidential term given the shaped party staff. The research design suggests an approach that captures, in a comparative way, the impact of the variability of organizational factors (intra-party decision and resource structures) in the processes linked to the coordination of coalitions and the formation of parliamentary majorities in the production of different agendas. Following the reasoning, the project was designed in three autonomous and theoretically complementary modules: first, with a comparative analysis between party organizations and the behavior of their benches in government systems in multiple countries (2017-2022); second, with the radiography and comparison of agendas performed and price of party support in presidential terms in Brazil (2007-2022); and third, with the development of the prediction model of the Brazilian presidential competition.