Future viability of soybean-maize succession in Mato Grosso and Paraná in face of climate change

• Grant number: 23/17510-3
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Scientific Initiation
• Start date: February 01, 2024
• End date: January 31, 2025
• Field of knowledge: Agronomical Sciences - Agronomy - Agricultural Meteorology
• Principal Investigator: Fabio Ricardo Marin
• Grantee: Gabriela Caroline dos Santos
• Host Institution: Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz (ESALQ). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Piracicaba , SP, Brazil

Abstract

Soybean and corn crops are extremely important for Brazil and, in a context of increasing world population, demand for these products is expected to increase. The soybean-maize succession is fundamental to the profitability of the land, the optimization of the use of human resources and machinery, in addition to increasing total grain production. Furthermore, it is the main agricultural system used in Mato Grosso and Paraná, main producers of both crops in Brazil. However, this succession system is highly sensitive to climatic conditions and sowing date. Corn grown in the second harvest, after the soybean harvest, currently represents the majority of the country's corn production, but has high climate risks, so that later soybean sowing compromises corn productivity, given the reduction in solar radiation, temperature and water availability in the soil throughout the crop cycle. Climate change alters the physiological development conditions of plants, which impacts the productivity of soybeans and corn, both grown separately and in succession. In this sense, to quantify the impacts of climate change on the soybean-maize succession, process-based crop model simulations can be used, which simulate the growth and development of crops considering different environmental and management conditions, allowing monitoring and make productivity predictions by understanding crop responses to the environment. Therefore, the objective of this study is to evaluate the future viability of the soybean-maize succession system in the face of climate change in the two main crop-producing states in Brazil, Mato Grosso and Paraná, considering different sowing times and based on simulations of the DSSAT/CROPGRO-Soybean and DSSAT/CERES-Maize models.