Analysis of Intense Rainfall and Impacts in the Northern Coastal Region of the State of São Paulo

• Grant number: 24/03654-6
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Scientific Initiation
• Start date: April 01, 2024
• End date: December 31, 2024
• Field of knowledge: Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Geosciences - Physical Geography
• Principal Investigator: Raul Reis Amorim
• Grantee: João Pedro de Moraes
• Host Institution: Instituto de Geociências (IG). Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP). Campinas , SP, Brazil
• Associated research grant: 22/03080-4 - Water resources management and the impacts of flooding on bagasas: the study of susceptibility, vulnerability, exposure and resilience to flooding in Brazilian cities, AP.PNGP.PI

Abstract

With the imminent threat of climate change and its heightened impact on the global south (Carmin, 2002; Tyler, 2012), there is a pressing need to delve deeper into climate management studies, aiming to mitigate impacts and enhance the quality of life in the most affected areas. In this context, this research proposes to analyze and understand the dynamics of rainfall in the northern coast of São Paulo, its impacts, and to explore possibilities for damage reduction and resilience enhancement. The research will commence with the characterization and description of the climatic systems involved in extreme rainfall events identified over the past 10 years. To achieve this, programming techniques in R and Python within Rstudio and PyCharm will be employed for data analysis, complemented by the examination of synoptic charts and satellite images to fully identify climatic processes. Furthermore, the civil defense database of São Paulo estate will be utilized to correlate climatic events with triggered disasters. Subsequently, attention will be directed towards understanding the territorial planning, land use, and occupation in the region, leveraging satellite imagery and reviewing municipal master plans and risk management plans of the most affected municipalities. This approach facilitates a discussion regarding existing territorial planning and management possibilities, aiming to comprehend the social construction of the natural phenomenon (Nascimento, 2018) and explore avenues to enhance the resilience of the local population (Tyler, 2012).