The domestic roots of interstate militarization in Latin America

• Grant number: 24/06215-3
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships abroad - Research Internship - Post-doctor
• Effective date (Start): November 01, 2024
• Effective date (End): June 30, 2025
• Field of knowledge: Humanities - Political Science - International Politics
• Principal Investigator: Rafael Antonio Duarte Villa
• Grantee: Thales Leonardo de Carvalho
• Supervisor: Luis Leandro Schenoni Santos
• Host Institution: Faculdade de Filosofia, Letras e Ciências Humanas (FFLCH). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Research place: University College London (UCL), England
• Associated to the scholarship: 22/15980-0 - Why can cooperation and conflict coexist? The causes of hybrid security dynamics in Latin America, BP.PD

Abstract

Despite being known as a peaceful region, Latin America still sees militarized interstate disputes (MIDs) - understood as when a state deploys the demonstration, threat, or use of force against another state. The most recent case occurred at the end of 2023, when the Venezuelan president, Nicolás Maduro, threatened the annexation of Essequibo, a region currently part of Guyana. The literature discusses some causes for these disputes, such as border claims and drug trafficking. Still, further investigation is necessary as countries with border disputes or transnational criminal organizations do not necessarily interact through MIDs. This is the gap this project intends to fill. It focuses on domestic decision-making processes to understand how domestic politics lead to interstate militarization in Latin America. It tests two hypotheses. First, contrary to the broader understanding, it proposes that democratic regimes do not affect the probability of interstate militarization in the region. By testing it, this project addresses existing ambiguities on the role of "democratic peace" in regional dynamics. The second hypothesis is that left-wing presidents tend to reduce the probability of MIDs occurring in the region. Both hypotheses will be tested using multimethod research designs, leveraging data from all Latin American states from the Cold War to 2023. Advanced quantitative and qualitative techniques will be deployed, aiming to comprehend regional patterns and causal mechanisms involved in each hypothesis.