Impact of a tax policy for sweetened beverages on preventable deaths from cardiovascular diseases.

• Grant number: 24/07257-1
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Scientific Initiation
• Start date: September 01, 2024
• End date: August 31, 2025
• Field of knowledge: Health Sciences - Collective Health - Epidemiology
• Principal Investigator: Carla Cristina Enes
• Grantee: Julia Theila Guarnieri
• Host Institution: Escola de Ciências da Vida (ECV). Pontifícia Universidade Católica de Campinas (PUC-CAMP). Campinas , SP, Brazil

Abstract

Introduction: Sugar consumption is associated with a growing burden of diseases resulting from obesity and other chronic diseases, such as cardiovascular diseases, and accounts for around 6 million deaths each year. Reducing the consumption of sweetened beverages is a first step towards developing new strategies to address this threat to the population's health. Objective: To estimate the impact of a 20% tax on sweetened beverages on preventable deaths from cardiovascular diseases in the Brazilian adult population. Methods: The impact of reducing the consumption of sweetened beverages on preventable deaths from cardiovascular diseases will be modeled over 20 years (2019 to 2039), based on creating a 20% tax on all sweetened beverages. The model will compare two populations: a reference population (baseline) before the intervention in individuals aged 20 and over in 2019 and an identical population (intervention) receiving a 20% tax on all sweetened beverages. First, the effect of the tax on the consumption of sweetened drinks will be estimated, and then on deaths from cardiovascular diseases. Consumption data from the 2107-2018 Family Budget Survey and demand elasticity values for sweetened beverages estimated from food acquisition data from the same survey, according to income quartile, will be used. The estimate of the reduction in deaths will be carried out using the PRIME model. Expected results: We expected that the publication of the results will expand knowledge in the area by providing information on the feasibility of a fiscal policy to reduce preventable deaths from cardiovascular diseases in the Brazilian population.