Voice or loyalty? An analysis of the reactions of agribusiness political actors vis-à-vis the environmental and foreign policies of Jair Bolsonaro' government (2019-2022)

• Grant number: 23/13251-3
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Scientific Initiation
• Effective date (Start): August 01, 2024
• Effective date (End): July 31, 2025
• Field of knowledge: Humanities - Political Science - International Politics
• Principal Investigator: Felipe Pereira Loureiro
• Grantee: Bernardo Cruz Franco
• Host Institution: Instituto de Relações Internacionais (IRI). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil

Abstract

The current project aims to analyze how political actors and dominant corporate representations in agribusiness respond to the environmental and foreign policies of the Jair Bolsonaro government (2019-2022). We assume that the election of a populist and far-right leader to the presidency has led to significant shifts in the "political economy of agribusiness", strengthening radicalized demands within the sector and fostering programmatic divisions among its primary nuclei. Specifically, we posit, in line with Pompeia (2021a) and Feldmann and Morgan (2021a), that the agribusiness industry engages with and reacts to Bolsonaro's right-wing populism ambivalently. While his administration advanced policies of interest to the sector, notably those related to land disputes and the dismantling of environmental agencies, it also brought into focus sensitive issues for the political elite in this field, thereby increasing reputational risks for agribusiness corporations both domestically and internationally and threatening trade agreements and divestments. Building upon Hirschman's classic "exit, voice, and loyalty" model (1972) and the modifications proposed by Feldmann and Morgan (2021a), we identify four potential responses of the business sector to the far-right populism of the Bolsonaro government: soft voice, loud voice, explicit loyalty, and implicit loyalty. Utilizing these categories, we aim to assess the stances of four influential agribusiness entities (Abiove, Aprosoja, CNA, and Coalizão Brasil) concerning pivotal moments in the Bolsonaro administration's environmental and foreign policy agenda. This analysis will shed light on the broader implications for state-business relations in Brazil and the political influence of agribusiness.