Land cost for sugarcane ethanol production in Brazil

• Grant number: 24/23520-4
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships abroad - Research Internship - Post-doctor
• Start date: May 01, 2025
• End date: April 30, 2026
• Field of knowledge: Agronomical Sciences - Agronomy - Soil Science
• Principal Investigator: Maurício Roberto Cherubin
• Grantee: Carlos Roberto Pinheiro Junior
• Supervisor: Andrew Balmford
• Host Institution: Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz (ESALQ). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Piracicaba , SP, Brazil
• Institution abroad: University of Cambridge, England
• Associated to the scholarship: 23/11337-8 - Effect of land use change and sugarcane management practices on soil C, soil health and associated ecosystem services: an evidence synthesis, BP.PD

Abstract

Boosting bioenergy production is widely recognised as the main pathway to mitigating climate change. However, achieving this requires expanding cultivated land area, raising concerns about land use change effects (i.e., losses of carbon and biodiversity). Brazil, the world's largest sugarcane producer (~40% of world production) and a pioneer in biofuel production, has approximately 20 million hectares of degraded pastureland, offering the most promising opportunity for expanding sugarcane ethanol production. However, there is still a lack of knowledge about the response of sugarcane yields to different edaphoclimatic conditions - one of its main drivers - in such areas. Thus, we hypothesised that the edaphoclimatic condition is the main driver of the land and externalities costs of sugarcane ethanol production in Brazil. If this hypothesis holds true, how will future climate scenarios affect the soil water balance, and consequently the sugarcane yield and the land cost? To test this hypothesis, we will use paired sugarcane yields and externalities data from current sugarcane cultivation areas in Brazil, which will be obtained through a systematic literature review and consultations with experts and companies in the sugar-energy sector. We will calculate i) the soil water balance to identify the different edaphoclimatic conditions of the sugarcane cultivation areas and ii) the greenhouse gas emissions from liming and fertilisation. In addition, future climate data will be obtained to simulate the IPCC's SSP2-4.5 and SSP4-8.5 scenarios and assess the effect of climate change on the soil water balance changes. To assess the land and externalities costs, the framework developed by Prof. Dr. Andrew Balmford from the University of Cambridge will be used. Such an assessment will provide critical information for Brazil's strategic planning, helping to identify the most suitable areas for investments, issuing decarbonisation credits (CBIOs), supporting its international commitments to expand sustainable biofuel production, reduce GHG emissions, and protect biodiversity.