Increasing productivity in Brazilian degraded pasture areas towards meeting the future world beef demand

• Grant number: 24/19920-7
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral
• Start date: August 01, 2025
• End date: July 31, 2028
• Field of knowledge: Agronomical Sciences - Agronomy - Agricultural Meteorology
• Principal Investigator: Fabio Ricardo Marin
• Grantee: Henrique Bauab Brunetti
• Host Institution: Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz (ESALQ). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Piracicaba , SP, Brazil
• Associated research grant: 21/10573-4 - Center for Carbon Research in Tropical Agriculture (CCARBON), AP.CEPID

Abstract

The global population may reach 9.7 billion people by 2050, with growth primarily occurring in underdeveloped countries. This growth, along with the increase in per capita income, will lead to an increase in demand for beef of up to 50.2%. Intensifying the use of the 43 million hectares of degraded pastures in Brazil to enhance livestock carrying capacity and productivity is strategic for the country to aid on meeting this demand with reduced environmental impact. This study aims to simulate the potential productivity of pastures, strategies for roughage supplementation, and carrying capacity in current (1987-2017) and future (2035-2065) scenarios in degraded pasture areas, with the goal of meeting the demand for beef in 2050. The demand for beef in 2050 will be estimated based on studies regarding global demand for beef and Brazil's role in meeting that demand. The impact of climate change on degraded pasture areas will be studied following the internationally used protocol for annual crops, which employs homogeneous climate zones and the predominant soils in the degraded pasture areas, along with global climate models (GCMs) to construct future scenarios. For estimating carrying capacity, process-based plant growth models from the DSSAT platform will be coupled with the forage budgeting and carrying capacity model developed by the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, and Food Supply (MAPA). The results of this study will certainly aid on directing efforts of forage breeders, policymakers, researchers, and stakeholders to capitalize on opportunities and overcome future challenges. (AU)