The climatic impact of drought and heat waves and the perception of thermal comfort in Brazil.

• Grant number: 25/01491-5
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral
• Start date: December 01, 2025
• End date: November 30, 2028
• Field of knowledge: Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Geosciences
• Principal Investigator: Jose Antonio Marengo Orsini
• Grantee: Mabel Calim Costa
• Host Institution: Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Nacionais (CEMADEN). Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação (Brasil). Cachoeira Paulista , SP, Brazil

Abstract

The main goal of this project is to create extreme risk maps of the combined effect of drought-heat integrated with human perception of these events. The aim of this project is to monitor the confluence of these extremes, as it achieves extreme values synchronized, on a risk map designed in multiscale which covers Brazilian states, biomes and cities. Human perception will be incorporated into the climate risk estimation using the thermal sensation index, which is essential for the implementation of public policies in the context of adaptation to climate change. There is concern about determining new levels of extreme events, but few studies integrate human perception of them. This project aims to fill this gap by proposing a study in the context of high-impact extremes that integrates the perception of risk as a driving force for resilience on a regional and local scale. Mapping the risk of extremes of drought, heat waves and heat stress directly relates to studies on the spread of wildfires, air pollution, arbovirus outbreaks, illness and deaths due to temperature extremes, changes in agricultural production, and all the challenges surrounding climate resilience. The integration of climate risk and heat stress maps will be carried out on a Github platform and will be developed using open source code, in a participatory manner and with no initial cost for hosting. In addition to creating a repository of information and visualization of analyses of combined events of drought, heat waves and thermal sensation, this project provides a space for research and exchange of experiences and leaves a legacy of future projects and partnerships.