Integrated analysis of the impact of climate scenarios on the availability and quality of water resources and ecosystem services in the Sorocaba - Médio Tietê River Basin using the SWAT model

• Grant number: 25/05846-2
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral
• Start date: June 01, 2025
• End date: November 30, 2026
• Field of knowledge: Health Sciences - Collective Health
• Principal Investigator: Adelaide Cassia Nardocci
• Grantee: Vanine Elane Menezes de Farias
• Host Institution: Faculdade de Saúde Pública (FSP). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Associated research grant: 23/12042-1 - Environment- Health- Ecosystem Services Nexus- from risk to adaptation and resilience, AP.BTA.R

Abstract

Introduction: Investment in monitoring tools and prediction of extreme events has been made, but much remains to be done regarding integrative and dynamic tools to support risks scenario analyses and their multiscale impacts. These analyses should support actions to confront and manage crises and their repercussions, inducing a virtuous cycle of adaptation and the construction of resilient societies. Objective: To conduct an integrated analysis of water resources, ecosystem services, health, and socioeconomic development across different climatic scenarios, land use, and sanitation infrastructure. This aims to foster closer collaboration among various managing and regulatory bodies, as well as to incorporate scientific production into decision-making and public policy spaces. Method: For integrating information on water resources, land use, and sanitation infrastructure will be used the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model. This model was developed for hydrological and environmental analysis of watersheds and has extensive applications as an assessment tool for the impacts of land use, climate change, and best agricultural practices on hydrological balance. It has been validated for simulating these and other physical processes. Input data will be obtained from public agencies. The results of the analyses will be organized into scenarios that will support workshops with the managers and stakeholders involved in the governance of the watershed. Expected Results: A significant scientific contribution is anticipated in integrating scenarios of water quality and availability within SWAT applications and the synergy with the "BEST" (Brazilian Ecohydrological Simulation Tool) project, which is a collaborative platform for applying SWAT throughout Brazil. Furthermore, it aims to provide local and state managers with a pilot model for risk governance and the development of evidence-based climate change adaptation plans.