Assessing the threat of plant-pollinator mismatches in the face of climate change

• Grant number: 25/09678-7
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral
• Start date: November 01, 2025
• End date: October 31, 2028
• Field of knowledge: Biological Sciences - Ecology - Ecosystems Ecology
• Principal Investigator: Leonor Patricia Cerdeira Morellato
• Grantee: Victoria Marquez
• Host Institution: Instituto de Biociências (IB). Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP). Campus de Rio Claro. Rio Claro , SP, Brazil
• Associated research grant: 21/10639-5 - Center for Research on Biodiversity Dynamics and Climate Change, AP.CEPID

Abstract

Climate change is one of the most important anthropogenic disturbance factors imposed on ecosystems today. Plants and their insect pollinators are both affected by climate change. Shifts in plant and pollinator phenologies due to climate change can lead to mismatches in their interactions, potentially compromising pollination services and ecosystem functioning. Tropical ecosystems, which have warmed significantly over the past century and experienced decreasing precipitation, are particularly vulnerable. However, research on climate change's impact on phenology has predominantly focused on temperate regions, leaving tropical ecosystems underexplored. Different research approaches to studying climate effects on phenology provide useful insights but often yield inconsistent conclusions due to methodological and regional biases. Climate change effects on pollinator phenologies have been less well-studied and no reviews have yet been conducted. In this project, we aim to investigate changes in flowering and pollinator phenological patterns and their climatic triggers over 40 years in São Paulo's tropical forests by reassessing flowering and pollinator phenologies using historical data from Morellato (1989). In parallel, we also aim to conduct two global systematic literature review: 1) a meta-analysis to examine the effects of climate change on plant flowering and pollinator phenologies across studies conducted in different ecosystems and with different research approaches to identify patterns and potential plant-pollinator mismatches globally, 2) A systematic review to estimate changes in the flowering order associated with climate change and compare these potential changes between tropical and temperate ecosystems. Those two reviews will add up to the understanding of drives, shifts and the variability of species responses and mismatches over the last decades on tropical seasonal forest