Predictive factor of long-term outcomes in obsessive-compulsive disorder and the role of the p-factor in a brazilian youth cohort

• Grant number: 25/22140-6
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Scientific Initiation
• Start date: November 01, 2025
• End date: October 31, 2026
• Field of knowledge: Health Sciences - Medicine - Psychiatry
• Principal Investigator: Eurípedes Constantino Miguel Filho
• Grantee: Mariana Cardoso Guimarães
• Host Institution: Faculdade de Medicina (FM). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Associated research grant: 21/12901-9 - National Center for Research and Innovation in Mental Health (CISM), AP.PCPE

Abstract

Obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) is a prevalent, chronic, and highly disabling mental disorder, frequently associated with psychiatric comorbidities and significant functional impairment. However, the risk factors that predict its development and long-term outcomes remain poorly understood, particularly in longitudinal studies of youth populations. In this context, the p-factor - a general dimension of psychopathology reflecting a transdiagnostic vulnerability to mental disorders - has emerged as a promising marker that may contribute to predicting the risk of developing OCD, allowing the identification of more susceptible individuals and supporting preventive strategies and early interventions.The primary objective of this project is to identify risk factors in childhood and adolescence that predict the occurrence and evolution of OCD in adulthood. The hypotheses include that adverse perinatal events, traumatic events in childhood, family history of OCD, psychiatric comorbidities, and the p-factor will predict greater functional impairment, chronic course, and poorer academic performance. As a secondary objective, the aim is to discuss the variables associated with OCD, exploring relationships that may explain psychopathology. It is hoped to identify robust prognostic markers that can aid in prevention and early intervention, as well as contribute to the understanding of OCD within a transdiagnostic perspective of psychopathology.For this purpose, data will be drawn from the Brazilian High Risk Cohort Study (BHRC), (approved by the Brazilian National Ethics in Research Commission - CAAE 13852413010015327 and 74563817.7.1001.5327), a longitudinal study that followed more than 2,511 individuals aged 6 to 12 years at the initial interview in 2008-2009 in São Paulo and Porto Alegre, with follow-ups in 2014/2015, 2018/2019, and 2023/2024. Participants underwent several assessments for psychiatric disorders, including interviews and self-reports. Environmental variables, such as socioeconomic status, childhood trauma, and prenatal exposures, were also considered.Descriptive statistical analyses will be conducted, followed by bivariate tests to select possible predictors and compare participants diagnosed with OCD, participants with subclinical obsessive-compulsive symptoms (SOC), and those without OCD symptoms. Next, multivariate regression models will be applied to estimate independent associations between early risk factors, including the p factor, and long-term outcomes related to OCD.