The potential economic losses caused by fire in Brazil

• Grant number: 25/16180-5
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate
• Start date: January 01, 2026
• End date: February 29, 2028
• Field of knowledge: Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Geosciences
• Principal Investigator: Liana Oighenstein Anderson
• Grantee: Débora Joana Dutra
• Host Institution: Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE). São José dos Campos , SP, Brazil

Abstract

Degradation caused by forest fires impairs ecosystem services, exacerbates climate change, and results in both direct and indirect economic losses. The lack of explicit costs for many environmental goods hampers their valuation and integration into effective public policies. This project aims to quantify and spatially analyze the economic and monetary impacts of wildfires on Brazil's native vegetation, focusing on carbon emissions, agricultural production losses, and damage to rural infrastructure. The methodology is organized into three chapters: the first estimates CO¿ emissions resulting from aboveground biomass loss, integrating land use and cover data with biomass estimates; the second evaluates direct losses in agriculture, timber extraction, and fencing based on burned area maps and damage percentage scenarios; the third models the future probability of wildfires using the FLAME 1.0 model, incorporating climate and socioeconomic projections up to 2050. Spatial statistical techniques will be used to identify critical areas of loss. This work is expected to yield innovative scientific and technological outcomes, including detailed maps of current and future economic and monetary losses, as well as integrated indicators of socio-environmental risk, which may support informed decision-making in public policy. The third chapter will be developed during a research internship abroad under the BEPE/FAPESP program. The research is linked to the FAPESP project 20/15230-5 and applies for a doctoral scholarship. (AU)