Unveiling hidden patterns: Ecological niche modeling and diversity patterns of ants (Formicidae) in the Atlantic Forest

• Grant number: 25/26484-1
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Master
• Start date: April 01, 2026
• End date: March 31, 2028
• Field of knowledge: Biological Sciences - Ecology
• Principal Investigator: Gabriela Procópio Camacho
• Grantee: Davi Vilaça Carvalho
• Host Institution: Museu de Zoologia (MZ). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Associated research grant: 23/12809-0 - Unraveling hidden patterns: exploring the diversity and phylogenetic endemism of Atlantic Forest ants through genomic data, AP.JP

Abstract

Understanding spatial patterns of biological diversity is fundamental to elucidating the ecological and evolutionary processes that structure communities and shape species distribution. In the Atlantic Forest, recognized as one of the most biodiverse and threatened ecosystems on the planet, this understanding becomes even more crucial given the intense fragmentation process that has reduced its original coverage to less than 28%, leaving mainly small isolated fragments that challenge biodiversity conservation, especially for small-bodied organisms such as invertebrates.Among terrestrial invertebrates, ants stand out for their abundance, wide distribution, and essential ecological role as ecosystem engineers, acting in the regulation of other arthropods, seed dispersal, nutrient cycling, and soil structuring. Brazil hosts the world's largest known ant diversity, with the Atlantic Forest representing one of the main centers of diversity and endemism for the group. However, despite decades of research, data on ant distribution and diversity remain scarce and spatially biased, hindering more robust macroecological analyses.This master's project aims to investigate ant diversity patterns throughout the Atlantic Forest using an integrated approach that combines ecological niche modeling with empirical data from local communities. The research will use the AtlanticAnts database, which compiled 152,818 records for 1,114 ant species, complemented by the Formicidae collection of the Museu de Zoologia da USP, representing a significant advance in the geographical and temporal coverage of available data.The methodology will involve the application of Ecological Niche Modeling using the Maxent algorithm, with environmental variables from the CHELSA v2.1 database, to estimate the expected geographical distributions of species. Through the probabilistic Stacked Species Distribution Modeling (pSSDM) technique, continuous maps of expected richness per ant subfamily will be generated. Spatial endemism metrics will be calculated, and Generalized Dissimilarity Modeling will be applied to assess turnover patterns along geographical and environmental gradients.The central questions guiding this investigation include: identifying the centers of ant richness and endemism in the Atlantic Forest and their variation among different subfamilies; understanding species replacement patterns along environmental and spatial gradients; and evaluating how observed ant communities differ from expected communities based on distribution models.This work is expected to contribute significantly to identifying knowledge gaps, support complementary sampling efforts, and provide solid subsidies for prioritizing areas for myrmecofauna conservation in the biome. By integrating ecological, spatial, and eventually phylogenetic data on Atlantic Forest ants, this research will expand the understanding of how historical and contemporary factors shape invertebrate biodiversity in fragmented tropical environments, offering scientific basis for more efficient conservation strategies in this globally priority biodiversity hotspot. (AU)