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Decision support in complex socio-ecological systems : a methodological proposal applied in ex-ante evaluation of public policies using complementary currency

Ranulfo Paiva Sobrinho
Total Authors: 1
Document type: Doctoral Thesis
Institution: Universidade Estadual de Campinas. Instituto de Economia
Defense date:
Examining board members:
João Alfredo de Carvalho Mangabeira; Pedro Augusto Pinheiro Fantinatti; André Munhoz de Argollo Ferrão; Ivette Raymunda Luna Huamani
Advisor: Ademar Ribeiro Romeiro

The work has two theoretical and methodological objectives: 1) to propose a prototype of a system of complementary currency (Sustento), showing that this can be an effective tool to solve socio-ecological problems. Integrate three methods hitherto used separately, (a) MACBETH decision support process, (b) system dynamic and (c) agent based model (ABM). This multimethodology integration aims to support decision makers, specifically undertake ex-ante assessment of their actions. The MACBETH process by its structuring phase, identified the elements that compose the system dynamics model. The latter, associated with ABM allowed decision makers assess, ex-ante, the impact of proposed actions by multiple criteria analysis. To show the feasibility of integrating methodologies, the adoption of the Sustento by potential users was evaluated before its application using these methodologies. The objective of the Sustento was to encourage the revegetation of farms and strengthen the local economy by serving as a medium of exchange. The complementary currency has the potential to increase the chances of implementing solutions to social and environmental problems by reducing the restriction of the same front to traditional financial resources. We tested the impact of the negative view of some owners as to implementation of Sustento on other farmers. It is concluded that the objectives proposed by the thesis have been achieved and that the integration of methodologies was useful to support decision-makers and has potential application to real cases. (AU)