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(Reference retrieved automatically from Web of Science through information on FAPESP grant and its corresponding number as mentioned in the publication by the authors.)

Self-amplified Amazon forest loss due to vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks

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Author(s):
Zemp, Delphine Clara ; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich ; Barbosa, Henrique M. J. ; Hirota, Marina ; Montade, Vincent ; Sampaio, Gilvan ; Staal, Arie ; Wang-Erlandsson, Lan ; Rammig, Anja
Total Authors: 9
Document type: Journal article
Source: NATURE COMMUNICATIONS; v. 8, MAR 13 2017.
Web of Science Citations: 47
Abstract

Reduced rainfall increases the risk of forest dieback, while in return forest loss might intensify regional droughts. The consequences of this vegetation-atmosphere feedback for the stability of the Amazon forest are still unclear. Here we show that the risk of self-amplified Amazon forest loss increases nonlinearly with dry-season intensification. We apply a novel complexnet-work approach, in which Amazon forest patches are linked by observation-based atmospheric water fluxes. Our results suggest that the risk of self-amplified forest loss is reduced with increasing heterogeneity in the response of forest patches to reduced rainfall. Under dry-season Amazonian rainfall reductions, comparable to Last Glacial Maximum conditions, additional forest loss due to self-amplified effects occurs in 10-13% of the Amazon basin. Although our findings do not indicate that the projected rainfall changes for the end of the twenty-first century will lead to complete Amazon dieback, they suggest that frequent extreme drought events have the potential to destabilize large parts of the Amazon forest. (AU)

FAPESP's process: 11/50151-0 - Dynamical phenomena in complex networks: fundamentals and applications
Grantee:Elbert Einstein Nehrer Macau
Support type: Research Projects - Thematic Grants
FAPESP's process: 13/50510-5 - Brazil-USA collaborative research: modifications by anthropogenic pollution of the natural atmospheric chemistry and particle microphysics of the tropical rain forest during GoAmazon intensive operating periods
Grantee:Henrique de Melo Jorge Barbosa
Support type: Research Program on Global Climate Change - Regular Grants