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(Reference retrieved automatically from Web of Science through information on FAPESP grant and its corresponding number as mentioned in the publication by the authors.)

A climate-change vulnerability and adaptation assessment for Brazil's protected areas

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Lapola, David M. [1] ; da Silva, Jose Maria C. [2] ; Braga, Diego R. [1, 3] ; Carpigiani, Larissa [3] ; Ogawa, Fernanda [3] ; Torres, Roger R. [4] ; Barbosa, Luis C. F. [5] ; Ometto, Jean P. H. B. [6] ; Joly, Carlos A. [7]
Total Authors: 9
[1] Univ Estadual Campinas, Ctr Meteorol & Climat Res Appl Agr, BR-13083886 Campinas, SP - Brazil
[2] Univ Miami, Dept Geog & Reg Studies, Coral Gables, FL 33124 - USA
[3] Sao Paulo State Univ, Dept Ecol, BR-13506900 Rio Claro, SP - Brazil
[4] Univ Fed Itajuba, Nat Resources Inst, BR-37500903 Itajuba, MG - Brazil
[5] Conservacao Int Brasil, Rua Antonio Barreto, 130-4 Andar, BR-66055050 Belem, Para - Brazil
[6] Natl Inst Space Res, Ctr Earth Syst Sci, BR-12227010 Sao Jose Dos Campos, SP - Brazil
[7] Univ Estadual Campinas, Dept Plant Biol, BR-13083970 Campinas, SP - Brazil
Total Affiliations: 7
Document type: Journal article
Source: Conservation Biology; OCT 2019.
Web of Science Citations: 1

Brazil hosts the largest expanse of tropical ecosystems within protected areas (PAs), which shelter biodiversity and support traditional human populations. We assessed the vulnerability to climate change of 993 terrestrial and coastal-marine Brazilian PAs by combining indicators of climatic-change hazard with indicators of PA resilience (size, native vegetation cover, and probability of climate-driven vegetation transition). This combination of indicators allows the identification of broad climate-change adaptation pathways. Seventeen PAs (20,611 km(2)) were highly vulnerable and located mainly in the Atlantic Forest (7 PAs), Cerrado (6), and the Amazon (4). Two hundred fifty-eight PAs (756,569 km(2)), located primarily in Amazonia, had a medium vulnerability. In the Amazon and western Cerrado, the projected severe climatic change and probability of climate-driven vegetation transition drove vulnerability up, despite the generally good conservation status of PAs. Over 80% of PAs of high or moderate vulnerability are managed by indigenous populations. Hence, besides the potential risks to biodiversity, the traditional knowledge and livelihoods of the people inhabiting these PAs may be threatened. In at least 870 PAs, primarily in the Atlantic Forest and Amazon, adaptation could happen with little or no intervention due to low climate-change hazard, high resilience status, or both. At least 20 PAs in the Atlantic Forest, Cerrado, and Amazonia should be targeted for stronger interventions (e.g., improvement of ecological connectivity), given their low resilience status. Despite being a first attempt to link vulnerability and adaptation in Brazilian PAs, we suggest that some of the PAs identified as highly or moderately vulnerable should be prioritized for testing potential adaptation strategies in the near future. (AU)

FAPESP's process: 12/51872-5 - ECOFOR: Biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in degraded and recovering Amazonian and Atlantic Forests
Grantee:Carlos Alfredo Joly
Support type: BIOTA-FAPESP Program - Thematic Grants
FAPESP's process: 12/08250-3 - Analysis of climate change projections from the IPCC Fifth Report inside Brazilian protected areas
Grantee:Fernanda Sueko Ogawa
Support type: Scholarships in Brazil - Scientific Initiation
FAPESP's process: 14/50627-2 - Feedback loop interactions between land use change and food security dynamics - DEVIL
Grantee:Jean Pierre Henry Balbaud Ometto
Support type: Research Program on Global Climate Change - Thematic Grants