Estimating greenhouse gas emissions from future Amazonian hydroelectric reservoirs

Autor(es)

de Faria, Felipe A. M. ^[1] ; Jaramillo, Paulina ^[1] ; Sawakuchi, Henrique O. ^[2] ; Richey, Jeffrey E. ^[3] ; Barros, Nathan ^[4]

Afiliação do(s) autor(es)

^[1] Carnegie Mellon Univ, Dept Engn & Publ Policy, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 - USA

^[2] Univ Sao Paulo, Ctr Nucl Energy Agr, Environm Anal & Geoproc Lab, BR-13400970 Piracicaba, SP - Brazil

^[3] Univ Washington, Sch Oceanog, Seattle, WA 98195 - USA

^[4] Univ Fed Juiz de Fora, BR-36036330 Juiz De Fora, MG - Brazil

• Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
• Fonte: ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS; v. 10, n. 12 DEC 2015.
• Citações Web of Science: 23

Resumo

Brazil plans to meet the majority of its growing electricity demand with new hydropower plants located in the Amazon basin. However, large hydropower plants located in tropical forested regions may lead to significant carbon dioxide and methane emission. Currently, no predictive models exist to estimate the greenhouse gas emissions before the reservoir is built. This paper presents two different approaches to investigate the future carbon balance of eighteen new reservoirs in the Amazon. The first approach is based on a degradation model of flooded carbon stock, while the second approach is based on flux data measured in Amazonian rivers and reservoirs. The models rely on a Monte Carlo simulation framework to represent the balance of the greenhouse gases into the atmosphere that results when land and river are converted into a reservoir. Further, we investigate the role of the residence time/stratification in the carbon emissions estimate. Our results imply that two factors contribute to reducing overall emissions from these reservoirs: high energy densities reservoirs, i.e., the ratio between the installed capacity and flooded area, and vegetation clearing. While the models' uncertainties are high, we show that a robust treatment of uncertainty can effectively indicate whether a reservoir in the Amazon will result in larger greenhouse gas emissions when compared to other electricity sources. (AU)

• Processo FAPESP: 12/17359-9 - Fluxo de metano de rios e os diferentes métodos para estimar a produção e oxidação de metano de ecossistemas aquáticos continentais
• Beneficiário: Henrique Oliveira Sawakuchi
• Modalidade de apoio: Bolsas no Exterior - Estágio de Pesquisa - Doutorado
• Processo FAPESP: 11/14502-2 - Fatores reguladores da emissão de metano (CH4) em ambientes deposicionais dos Rios Negro, Tapajós, Xingu e Amazonas
• Beneficiário: Henrique Oliveira Sawakuchi
• Modalidade de apoio: Bolsas no Brasil - Doutorado
• Processo FAPESP: 11/06609-1 - Proveniência, transporte e estocagem de sedimentos nos rios amazônicos
• Beneficiário: André Oliveira Sawakuchi
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Regular