Land use change emission scenarios: anticipating a forest transition process in the Brazilian Amazon

Autor(es):Mostrar menos -

Dutra Aguiar, Ana Paula ^[1] ; Guimaraes Vieira, Ima Celia ^[2] ; Assis, Talita Oliveira ^[1] ; Dalla-Nora, Eloi L. ^[1] ; Toledo, Peter Mann ^[1] ; Oliveira Santos-Junior, Roberto Araujo ^[1] ; Batistella, Mateus ^{[3, 4]} ; Coelho, Andrea Santos ^[5] ; Savaget, Elza Kawakami ^[3] ; Oliveira Cruz Aragao, Luiz Eduardo ^[6] ; Nobre, Carlos Afonso ^[7] ; Ometto, Jean Pierre H. ^[1]

Afiliação do(s) autor(es)

^[1] Minist Sci Technol & Innovat MCTI, Natl Inst Space Res INPE, Earth Syst Sci Ctr CCST, Av Astronautas 1758, BR-12227010 Sao Jose Dos Campos, SP - Brazil

^[2] Minist Sci Technol & Innovat MCTI, Emilio Goeldi Museum Para MPEG, Res & Postgrad Coordinat, Av Magalhaes Barata 376, BR-66040170 Belem, PA - Brazil

^[3] State Univ Campinas UNICAMP, Ctr Environm Studies & Res NEPAM, Cidade Univ Zeferino Vaz, BR-13083970 Campinas, SP - Brazil

^[4] Minist Agr Livestock & Food Supply MAPA, Brazilian Agr Res Corp EMBRAPA, Parque Estacao Biolog PqEB S-N, BR-70770901 Brasilia 70770901, DF - Brazil

^[5] Minist Sci Technol & Innovat MCTI, Brazilian Inst Space Res INPE, Amazon Reg Ctr CRA, Parque Ciencia & Tecnol Guama, Av Perimetral 2651, BR-66077830 Belem, PA - Brazil

^[6] Minist Sci Technol & Innovat MCTI, Brazilian Inst Space Res INPE, Remote Sensing Div, Trop Ecosyst & Environm Sci Grp TREES, Av Astronautas 1758, BR-12227010 Sao Jose Dos Campos, SP - Brazil

^[7] Minist Educ, Higher Educ Improvement Coordinat CAPES, Setor Bancario Norte, Quadra 2, Bloco L, Lote 06, BR-70040020 Brasilia, DF - Brazil

• Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
• Fonte: GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY; v. 22, n. 5, p. 1821-1840, MAY 2016.
• Citações Web of Science: 46

Resumo

Following an intense occupation process that was initiated in the 1960s, deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon have decreased significantly since 2004, stabilizing around 6000km(2)yr(-1) in the last 5years. A convergence of conditions contributed to this, including the creation of protected areas, the use of effective monitoring systems, and credit restriction mechanisms. Nevertheless, other threats remain, including the rapidly expanding global markets for agricultural commodities, large-scale transportation and energy infrastructure projects, and weak institutions. We propose three updated qualitative and quantitative land-use scenarios for the Brazilian Amazon, including a normative Sustainability' scenario in which we envision major socio-economic, institutional, and environmental achievements in the region. We developed an innovative spatially explicit modelling approach capable of representing alternative pathways of the clear-cut deforestation, secondary vegetation dynamics, and the old-growth forest degradation. We use the computational models to estimate net deforestation-driven carbon emissions for the different scenarios. The region would become a sink of carbon after 2020 in a scenario of residual deforestation (similar to 1000km(2)yr(-1)) and a change in the current dynamics of the secondary vegetation - in a forest transition scenario. However, our results also show that the continuation of the current situation of relatively low deforestation rates and short life cycle of the secondary vegetation would maintain the region as a source of CO2 - even if a large portion of the deforested area is covered by secondary vegetation. In relation to the old-growth forest degradation process, we estimated average gross emission corresponding to 47% of the clear-cut deforestation from 2007 to 2013 (using the DEGRAD system data), although the aggregate effects of the postdisturbance regeneration can partially offset these emissions. Both processes (secondary vegetation and forest degradation) need to be better understood as they potentially will play a decisive role in the future regional carbon balance. (AU)

• Processo FAPESP: 14/50627-2 - Devil: promovendo segurança alimentar com disponibilidade restrita de terra
• Beneficiário: Jean Pierre Henry Balbaud Ometto
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Programa de Pesquisa sobre Mudanças Climáticas Globais - Temático