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Magnitude and frequency variations of vector-borne infection outbreaks using the Ross-Macdonald model: explaining and predicting outbreaks of dengue fever

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Amaku, M. ; Azevedo, F. ; Burattini, M. N. ; Coelho, G. E. ; Coutinho, F. A. B. ; Greenhalgh, D. ; Lopez, L. F. ; Motitsuki, R. S. ; Wilder-Smith, A. ; Massad, E.
Número total de Autores: 10
Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
Fonte: EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION; v. 144, n. 16, p. 3435-3450, DEC 2016.
Citações Web of Science: 5

The classical Ross-Macdonald model is often utilized to model vector-borne infections; however, this model fails on several fronts. First, using measured (or estimated) parameters, which values are accepted from the literature, the model predicts a much greater number of cases than what is usually observed. Second, the model predicts a single large outbreak that is followed by decades of much smaller outbreaks, which is not consistent with what is observed. Usually towns or cities report a number of recurrences for many years, even when environmental changes cannot explain the disappearance of the infection between the peaks. In this paper, we continue to examine the pitfalls in modelling this class of infections, and explain that, if properly used, the Ross-Macdonald model works and can be used to understand the patterns of epidemics and even, to some extent, be used to make predictions. We model several outbreaks of dengue fever and show that the variable pattern of yearly recurrence (or its absence) can be understood and explained by a simple Ross-Macdonald model modified to take into account human movement across a range of neighbourhoods within a city. In addition, we analyse the effect of seasonal variations in the parameters that determine the number, longevity and biting behaviour of mosquitoes. Based on the size of the first outbreak, we show that it is possible to estimate the proportion of the remaining susceptible individuals and to predict the likelihood and magnitude of the eventual subsequent outbreaks. This approach is described based on actual dengue outbreaks with different recurrence patterns from some Brazilian regions. (AU)

Processo FAPESP: 14/26229-7 - Genômica de paisagens em gradientes latitudinais e ecologia de Anopheles darlingi
Beneficiário:Maria Anice Mureb Sallum
Linha de fomento: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Temático
Processo FAPESP: 14/26327-9 - A Rede Acadêmica de São Paulo: projeto 2015
Beneficiário:Luis Fernandez Lopez
Linha de fomento: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Programa Apoio à Rede Acadêmica