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(Referência obtida automaticamente do Web of Science, por meio da informação sobre o financiamento pela FAPESP e o número do processo correspondente, incluída na publicação pelos autores.)

Self-amplified Amazon forest loss due to vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks

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Autor(es):
Zemp, Delphine Clara ; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich ; Barbosa, Henrique M. J. ; Hirota, Marina ; Montade, Vincent ; Sampaio, Gilvan ; Staal, Arie ; Wang-Erlandsson, Lan ; Rammig, Anja
Número total de Autores: 9
Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
Fonte: NATURE COMMUNICATIONS; v. 8, MAR 13 2017.
Citações Web of Science: 41
Resumo

Reduced rainfall increases the risk of forest dieback, while in return forest loss might intensify regional droughts. The consequences of this vegetation-atmosphere feedback for the stability of the Amazon forest are still unclear. Here we show that the risk of self-amplified Amazon forest loss increases nonlinearly with dry-season intensification. We apply a novel complexnet-work approach, in which Amazon forest patches are linked by observation-based atmospheric water fluxes. Our results suggest that the risk of self-amplified forest loss is reduced with increasing heterogeneity in the response of forest patches to reduced rainfall. Under dry-season Amazonian rainfall reductions, comparable to Last Glacial Maximum conditions, additional forest loss due to self-amplified effects occurs in 10-13% of the Amazon basin. Although our findings do not indicate that the projected rainfall changes for the end of the twenty-first century will lead to complete Amazon dieback, they suggest that frequent extreme drought events have the potential to destabilize large parts of the Amazon forest. (AU)

Processo FAPESP: 11/50151-0 - Fenômenos dinâmicos em redes complexas: fundamentos e aplicações
Beneficiário:Elbert Einstein Nehrer Macau
Linha de fomento: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Temático
Processo FAPESP: 13/50510-5 - Pesquisa colaborativa Brasil-EUA: modificações causadas pela poluição antrópica na química da atmosfera e na microfísica de partículas da floresta tropical durante as campanhas intensivas do GoAmazon
Beneficiário:Henrique de Melo Jorge Barbosa
Linha de fomento: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Programa de Pesquisa sobre Mudanças Climáticas Globais - Regular