Busca avançada
Ano de início
Entree
(Referência obtida automaticamente do Web of Science, por meio da informação sobre o financiamento pela FAPESP e o número do processo correspondente, incluída na publicação pelos autores.)

Sensitivity and requirement of improvements of four soybean crop simulation models for climate change studies in Southern Brazil

Texto completo
Autor(es):
Battisti, R. [1] ; Sentelhas, P. C. [2] ; Boote, K. J. [3]
Número total de Autores: 3
Afiliação do(s) autor(es):
[1] Univ Fed Goias, Coll Agron, Goiania, Go - Brazil
[2] Univ Sao Paulo, Dept Biosyst Engn, ESALQ, Piracicaba, SP - Brazil
[3] Univ Florida, Agron Dept, Gainesville, FL 32611 - USA
Número total de Afiliações: 3
Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
Fonte: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY; v. 62, n. 5, SI, p. 823-832, MAY 2018.
Citações Web of Science: 4
Resumo

Crop growth models have many uncertainties that affect the yield response to climate change. Based on that, the aim of this study was to evaluate the sensitivity of crop models to systematic changes in climate for simulating soybean attainable yield in Southern Brazil. Four crop models were used to simulate yields: AQUACROP, MONICA, DSSAT, and APSIM, as well as their ensemble. The simulations were performed considering changes of air temperature (0, + 1.5, + 3.0, + 4.5, and + 6.0 A degrees C), {[}CO2] (380, 480, 580, 680, and 780 ppm), rainfall (- 30, - 15, 0, + 15, and + 30%), and solar radiation (- 15, 0, + 15), applied to daily values. The baseline climate was from 1961 to 2014, totalizing 53 crop seasons. The crop models simulated a reduction of attainable yield with temperature increase, reaching 2000 kg ha(-1) for the ensemble at + 6 A degrees C, mainly due to shorter crop cycle. For rainfall, the yield had a higher rate of reduction when it was diminished than when rainfall was increased. The crop models increased yield variability when solar radiation was changed from - 15 to + 15%, whereas {[}CO2] rise resulted in yield gains, following an asymptotic response, with a mean increase of 31% from 380 to 680 ppm. The models used require further attention to improvements in optimal and maximum cardinal temperature for development rate; runoff, water infiltration, deep drainage, and dynamic of root growth; photosynthesis parameters related to soil water availability; and energy balance of soil-plant system to define leaf temperature under elevated CO2. (AU)

Processo FAPESP: 14/09424-0 - Avaliação da produtividade com a alteração de parâmetros da cultura da soja para a adaptação às condições climáticas futuras no Centro-Sul do Brasil
Beneficiário:Rafael Battisti
Linha de fomento: Bolsas no Exterior - Estágio de Pesquisa - Doutorado
Processo FAPESP: 13/05306-0 - Mudanças climáticas: impactos na produtividade e adaptações necessárias ao cultivo da soja na região Centro-Sul do Brasil
Beneficiário:Rafael Battisti
Linha de fomento: Bolsas no Brasil - Doutorado