Comparison of malaria incidence rates and socioeconomic-environmental factors between the states of Acre and Rondonia: a spatio-temporal modelling study

Autor(es)

de Oliveira Padilha, Meyrecler Aglair ^[1] ; Melo, Janille de Oliveira ^[1] ; Romano, Guilherme ^[1] ; Malveira de Lima, Marcos Vinicius ^{[1, 2]} ; Alonso, Wladimir J. ; Mureb Sallum, Maria Anice ^[3] ; Laporta, Gabriel Zorello ^{[4, 1]}

Afiliação do(s) autor(es)

^[1] Ctr Univ Saude ABC, Fundacao ABC, Setor Posgrad Pesquisa & Inovacao, Santo Andre, SP - Brazil

^[2] Gerencia Estadual Controle Endemias, Rio Branco, AC - Brazil

^[3] Univ Sao Paulo, Fac Saude Publ, Dept Epidemiol, Sao Paulo, SP - Brazil

^[4] Univ Florida, Sch Forest Resources & Conservat, Gainesville, FL 32611 - USA

• Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
• Fonte: Malaria Journal; v. 18, n. 1 SEP 4 2019.
• Citações Web of Science: 0

Resumo

Background Plasmodium falciparum malaria is a threat to public health, but Plasmodium vivax malaria is most prevalent in Latin America, where the incidence rate has been increasing since 2016, particularly in Venezuela and Brazil. The Brazilian Amazon reported 193,000 cases in 2017, which were mostly confirmed as P. vivax (similar to 90%). Herein, the relationships among malaria incidence rates and the proportion of accumulated deforestation were contrasted using data from the states of Acre and Rondonia in the south-western Brazilian Amazon. The main purpose is to test the hypothesis that the observed difference in incidence rates is associated with the proportion of accumulated deforestation. Methods An ecological study using spatial and temporal models for mapping and modelling malaria risk was performed. The municipalities of Acre and Rondonia were the spatial units of analysis, whereas month and year were the temporal units. The number of reported malaria cases from 2009 until 2015 were used to calculate the incidence rate per 1000 people at risk. Accumulated deforestation was calculated using publicly available satellite images. Geographically weighted regression was applied to provide a local model of the spatial heterogeneity of incidence rates. Time-series dynamic regression was applied to test the correlation of incidence rates and accumulated deforestation, adjusted by climate and socioeconomic factors. Results The malaria incidence rate declined in Rondonia but remained stable in Acre. There was a high and positive correlation between the decline in malaria and higher proportions of accumulated deforestation in Rondonia. Geographically weighted regression showed a complex relationship. As deforestation increased, malaria incidence also increased in Acre, while as deforestation increased, malaria incidence decreased in Rondonia. Time-series dynamic regression showed a positive association between malaria incidence and precipitation and accumulated deforestation, whereas the association was negative with the human development index in the westernmost areas of Acre. Conclusion Landscape modification caused by accumulated deforestation is an important driver of malaria incidence in the Brazilian Amazon. However, this relationship is not linearly correlated because it depends on the overall proportion of the land covered by forest. For regions that are partially degraded, forest cover becomes a less representative component in the landscape, causing the abovementioned non-linear relationship. In such a scenario, accumulated deforestation can lead to a decline in malaria incidence. (AU)

• Processo FAPESP: 14/26229-7 - Genômica de paisagens em gradientes latitudinais e ecologia de Anopheles darlingi
• Beneficiário: Maria Anice Mureb Sallum
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Temático
• Processo FAPESP: 15/09669-6 - Dinâmica de transmissão de malária em diferentes limiares de fragmentação da paisagem
• Beneficiário: Gabriel Zorello Laporta
• Modalidade de apoio: Bolsas no Brasil - Programa BIOTA - Jovens Pesquisadores
• Processo FAPESP: 14/09774-1 - Dinâmica de transmissão de malária em diferentes limiares de fragmentação da paisagem
• Beneficiário: Gabriel Zorello Laporta
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Programa BIOTA - Jovens Pesquisadores