A Spatial and Temporal Risk Assessment of the Impacts of El Nino on the Tropical Forest Carbon Cycle: Theoretical Framework, Scenarios, and Implications

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Esquivel-Muelbert, Adriane ^{[1, 2]} ; Bennett, Amy C. ^[1] ; Sullivan, Martin J. P. ^[1] ; Baker, Jessica C. A. ^[3] ; Gavish, Yoni ^[1] ; Johnson, Michelle O. ^[1] ; Wang, Yunxia ^[1] ; Chambers-Ostler, Alexander ^[1] ; Giannichi, Marta Lisli ^{[1, 3]} ; Gomes, Luciene ^[1] ; Kalamandeen, Michelle ^[1] ; Pattnayak, Kanhu Charan ^[3] ; Fauset, Sophie ^[4]

Afiliação do(s) autor(es)

^[1] Univ Leeds, Sch Geog, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire - England

^[2] Univ Birmingham, Sch Geog Earth & Environm Sci, Birmingham B15 2TT, W Midlands - England

^[3] Univ Leeds, Sch Earth & Environm, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire - England

^[4] Univ Plymouth, Sch Geog Earth & Environm Sci, Plymouth PL4 8AA, Devon - England

• Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
• Fonte: ATMOSPHERE; v. 10, n. 10 OCT 2019.
• Citações Web of Science: 1

Resumo

Strong El Nino events alter tropical climates and may lead to a negative carbon balance in tropical forests and consequently a disruption to the global carbon cycle. The complexity of tropical forests and the lack of data from these regions hamper the assessment of the spatial distribution of El Nino impacts on these ecosystems. Typically, maps of climate anomaly are used to detect areas of greater risk, ignoring baseline climate conditions and forest cover. Here, we integrated climate anomalies from the 1982-1983, 1997-1998, and 2015-2016 El Nino events with baseline climate and forest edge extent, using a risk assessment approach to hypothetically assess the spatial and temporal distributions of El Nino risk over tropical forests under several risk scenarios. The drivers of risk varied temporally and spatially. Overall, the relative risk of El Nino has been increasing driven mainly by intensified forest fragmentation that has led to a greater chance of fire ignition and increased mean annual air temperatures. We identified areas of repeated high risk, where conservation efforts and fire control measures should be focused to avoid future forest degradation and negative impacts on the carbon cycle. (AU)

• Processo FAPESP: 12/51509-8 - Composição florística, estrutura e dinâmica do funcionamento da Floresta Ombrófila Densa Atlântica dos núcleos Caraguatatuba, Cunha, Picinguaba e Santa Virgínia, do Parque Estadual da Serra do Mar (PelD)
• Beneficiário: Carlos Alfredo Joly
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Programa BIOTA - Regular
• Processo FAPESP: 12/51872-5 - ECOFOR: Biodiversidade e funcionamento de ecossistemas em áreas alteradas pelo homem nas Florestas Amazônica e Atlântica
• Beneficiário: Carlos Alfredo Joly
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Programa BIOTA - Temático